⁵ Most of the near-term opportunities involve using resources in situ, with Moon exploration set to become a significant driver of science and technology in this area.

Operating on the Moon will require locally produced resources, such as water extracted from ice at the lunar poles. This can be broken down into oxygen and hydrogen for propellant and life support, and the first pilot mission to demonstrate this capability will be an important milestone. Characterising the make-up of the regolith and the ice it contains will be an important early goal for these missions.

Near-Earth asteroids are a more distant potential source of precious metals, ores and ices. But the huge cost of such missions is a significant stumbling block.

In 2023, the Space Solar Power Demonstrator (SSPD-1) satellite demonstrated that solar power could be harvested in space and beamed to Earth in the form of microwaves. Future challenges include expanding panels to the kilometre scale.⁶

A different kind of resource is found on the far side of the Moon: a unique radio silence that astronomers hope will give them access to clear signals from elsewhere in the universe.

Humanity uses this environment as a viewing platform from which it can observe the Earth and the universe, as a thoroughfare for spacecraft, and as a home for satellites. Satellites provide commercial services such as telecommunications and Earth observation, civic services such as climate studies, and weather-monitoring and military services such as intelligence-gathering and both offensive and defensive operations.

Nation states have already begun to increase resources devoted to protecting, inspecting and destroying assets in space.⁸ The weaponisation of space is increasing tensions and raising the stakes for space-related diplomacy.⁹

Overcrowding is likely to become an important issue, particularly in areas of special interest, such as Lagrange points and low Earth orbit. But the prospects of “Kessler Syndrome”, in which a chain reaction of collisions increases debris levels exponentially, will drop as operators remove the large pieces of debris, like defunct satellites and spent rocket stages, that are the greatest threat. Various companies and agencies are already developing debris-removal capabilities. Space tugs that can move satellites have already been demonstrated, and the European Space Agency plans to demonstrate the safe removal of a large piece of debris with its Clearspace-1 satellite,¹⁰ due for launch in 2026.

How this orbital hygiene will be organised is not clear, but there are calls for a better form of space traffic control to reduce the chance of accidents, for the planned clean-up of space debris and for an appropriate legal environment to resolve disputes.

For example, these conditions ought to allow for higher-quality versions of pharmaceuticals, metals or semiconductors that can outperform those made on Earth.¹¹ That should mean that large spare-part inventories for space-based operations will become a thing of the past.

The most important manufacturing limitation is the availability of power. A key enabler will be the availability of larger power sources both in orbit and on the Moon. Kilowatt power sources are expected in the next two to three years, but megawatts are needed for industrial-scale production. Finding ways to establish these is an important goal for space agencies and commercial operators such as Blue Origin.

Larger power systems will enable the manufacture and construction of bigger structures like remote sensing antennas, the building blocks for human habitation modules and semiconductor fabrication.

The longer-term goal is to find ways to make use of resources on Mars and near-Earth asteroids, which may be accelerated by construction of a Moon base or the use of lunar water ice, which can be readily turned into oxygen and hydrogen for propulsion and life support.

These fleets will quickly become more capable as companies deploy satellite-to-satellite encrypted laser communications. Real-time video feeds from space are also gaining in popularity.¹²

With launch costs dropping, satellite operators are experimenting with off-the-self components for imaging, sensing and communicating at lower cost.

One important limit on satellite lifetime is the amount of onboard fuel. With high-end satellites costing hundreds of millions, refuelling is an attractive way to extend lifetimes. Lockheed Martin¹³ and Northrop Grumman¹⁴ are among companies developing a standard refuelling capability for satellites. Orbit Fab has already tested liquid pumping technology aboard the International Space Station and plans to offer satellite-refuelling services in 2025.¹⁵ This will require greater manoeuvrability: changing orbits and rendezvousing with other craft remains difficult, requiring plentiful fuel and agile propulsion systems.¹⁶

However, the US, Russia and China are perfecting this technique in spacecraft that can approach and inspect other vehicles.¹⁷ This, is already enabling applications such as automated refuelling of spacecraft and dramatic increases in operational lifetimes. It also raises security concerns, as close approaches in orbit enable the disruption or even disabling of civil and military satellites.

The increased activity on the Moon and in lunar orbit will require a lunar time zone with satellites proving timing, positioning and communications. That will require significant collaboration to develop international standards