The GESDA Science Breakthrough Radar is continuously updated expanded through anticipatory events, workshops and consultations with the broader scientific community.

Ageing is a complex and time-dependent decline in physiological function that affects most organisms, making it the most common and biggest risk factor for chronic diseases. Therefore, understanding the various molecular, genetic, environmental, and societal aspects of ageing as a health challenge is crucial to develop new strategies that promote health resilience and extend healthy years of life by slowing down or even reversing biological ageing.
Sleep, the body’s natural mechanism for restoration and repair, has recently received increasing attention for harnessing health until old age. It is essential to all mammal species' survival and lack of sleep comes at the cost of a higher all mortality risk and shorter healthspan. Sleep is essential for restoring the homeostasis of multiple brain and body functions including DNA repair, memory formation and neuroplasticity, glymphatic clearance of the brain, metabolic and hormonal regulation, harnessing the gut’s microbiome and immune function, cardiovascular recovery, and facilitating emotional health and pro-social control. Based on expanding knowledge about sleep which ranges from (epi)genetic and cellular functions, and systemic effects on the brain and body, to cultural and societal factors, the field has now entered an era where radically new diagnostics and therapeutics are within reach for targeting sleep to extend healthspan.
To date, it is widely accepted that ageing and sleep interact. However, it has been less well discussed how exploring the interface between biological ageing and sleep can reveal new opportunities for harnessing healthy longevity from the cellular to the societal level. Anticipating future advances in our understanding of how biological ageing depends on maintaining homeostasis across multiple organ systems from the molecular to the systemic scale, and how sleep naturally contributes to these processes and can be modified by novel interventions, will reveal exciting new opportunities for diagnosing and augmenting health resilience and longevity while asleep. Given these possibilities, breakthroughs for new strategies for human healthspan extension will enable a new kind of holistic public health programme which encourages policy uptake through the generation of solid evidence and has the potential to significantly impact both the ageing individual and society.
Following an introductory session highlighting how we can think about the future of humanity and society, the deep dive workshop will focus on sleep as a strategy for healthspan extension during ageing in three interrelated themes:

****Decoding biological age
****Augmenting sleep for functional restoration
****Extending healthspan

The main guiding question for the conference remains the same: can we anticipate new scientific disruptions in these areas, and what are their implications for our future?

Workshop

Singapore Anticipation Conference: Augmenting Sleep to Slow Down Biological Ageing

Human Augmentation

Tan Eng ChyeChristian WolfrumManu Kapur + 34

The Villars Anticipation Workshops take place over three days at Victoria Hotel & Residence in Villars, Switzerland, and are hosted by Prof. Michael Hengartner, Chair of GESDA’s Academic Forum and President of the ETH Board. The workshop series provides:

A unique space of convergence for direct engagement with leading researchers across related but distinct scientific fields,
An innovative framework for anticipation to explore future cutting-edge research beyond one’s immediate expertise, and
A direct bridge to diplomacy for translating scientific insights into action.

Workshop

Villars Anticipation Workshop on Planetarised Humanity

Science & Diplomacy

Michael O. HengartnerRosi BraidottiAchille Mbembe + 27

Mathematics has a reputation for being an esoteric pursuit, but the truth is very different: the discipline is central to many aspects of human endeavour. In the 21st century, mathematical fields such as linear algebra, differential calculus and statistical analysis underpin a wide swathe of our activities, from online shopping to medical diagnosis. Future progress in science, greater societal stability, discoveries in medicine, and ecological protection and remediation will all depend on developments in a variety of mathematical disciplines. So how can mathematicians and legislators, diplomats, politicians, funding agencies and other policy makers best work together to ensure that these future breakthroughs can be achieved?

Workshop

GESDA Anticipation Workshop - Mathematics for Humanity

Knowledge Foundations

Sophie GilbertMinhyong KimNima Arkani-Hamad + 8

At this roundtable, GESDA and CIFAR will introduce our approaches and goals for science
anticipation / research foresight, and we invite all participating organisations to do so as well.
We also want to begin a conversation on the challenges that different organisations have
encountered in their work, major gaps that need to be addressed, and types of output or
collaborative activities that would be beneficial for the anticipation / foresight community. We
hope the discussion will seed potential next steps towards building up this community of
practice. Below is a draft agenda for the roundtable. We hope you will be able to join us.

Workshop

Roundtable for Science Anticipation and Research Foresight Organisations at GESDA Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit

Daniel BacinelloMartin MüllerSophie Gilbert

Bacterial and fungal pathogens are rapidly becoming resistant to existing interventions, in a phenomenon known as antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The WHO estimates that by 2050, 10 million people will die due to antibiotic resistance. As a result, AMR is gaining significant global attention, with discussions now reaching the highest diplomatic platforms, including the United Nations General Assembly. The President of the UN General Assembly organised a multistakeholder hearing on AMR on 15 May 2024, and a High-Level Meeting on AMR will be convened for the second time during UNGA’s 79th session in New York. This escalating concern may lead to a Presidential Declaration addressing AMR at the upcoming “Summit of the Future” in late September, reflecting the issue’s priority in global health and policy-making agendas.
But new drugs are hard to discover and develop with little financial incentives, as they are not competitive against cheap generics, such as current antibiotics on the market. It will be necessary to embrace entirely new ideas and new approaches to renew the pipeline.
The more alternatives to defeating antimicrobial resistance the better, to minimise the chance of pathogens evolving mechanisms to evade the treatment – that is, resistance.
Many of these strategies, however, rely on anticipated advances from the field of synthetic biology. Synthetic biology is a set of emerging technologies enabling the modification and
creation of living cells and organisms, and of their building blocks.
Considering that many medicines are either sourced directly from living organisms or based on chemicals produced in nature, synthetic biology’s promise to treat life as programmable matter will have vast implications for the control of AMR. Synthetic biology has the potential to find many new candidate drugs and to produce medicines in cellular factories. Notably, the first synthetic vaccines have been made and shown to be effective, and combined with the anticipated ability of artificial intelligence (AI) to be able predict the structure and function of any new biomolecule in the next 5 years, the power of synthetic biology techniques are only set to increase.
The GESDA Science Breakthrough Radar® anticipates breakthroughs in the field of synthetic biology at 5, 10 and 25 years with the potential to accelerate the release of new drugs to fight or neutralise AMR.
Examples include the use of bacteria-infecting viruses known as phages to treat bacterial infections and reduce resistance to antibiotics by removing physiological barriers – biofilms – which contribute to resistance. Research is also underway to develop microbiome strategies to cultivate gut flora to outcompete pathogenic strains. In addition to faecal transplants, more sophisticated RNA-based sculpting of the microbiome can selectively kill certain bacteria. Immunotherapy is also being investigated for deployment against bacterial and fungal infections, and we can even mine our ancient genomes for extinct mechanisms for combating disease.
This workshop aims to:

Explore the range of synthetic biology tools that experts anticipate will be made available over the next 5, 10 and 25 years.
Illuminate strategies for combating the urgent global threat of AMR using these tools.
Identify areas of targeted multistakeholder action to be made in the present to accelerate this potential.

Workshop

Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR): How can anticipating advances in synthetic biology help combat one of our greatest health and policy-making challenges?

Human Augmentation

Maricela MuñozSophie GilbertJoseph Heitman + 6

GESDA initiated first reflections on a new vision for eco-augmentation at the 2024 GESDA Villars
Anticipation Workshop, which acted to identify key opportunities for
research in this area. The workshop at the 2024 GESDA Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit
will bring together a small number of experts to formulate the full scope of a proposed ecoaugmentation
solution to create a shared vision for the initiative.
This workshop aims to:

Form a collective understanding of eco-augmentation as a global and transdisciplinary endeavour.
Identify and develop use cases for eco-augmentation.
Formulate a global vision for a solution to accelerate the knowledge and understanding required for eco-augmentation to benefit humans, society and the planet.

Workshop

Accelerating eco-augmentation for global good

Eco-Regeneration & Geoengineering

Sandro GiulianiSophie GilbertDavid S. Kong + 6

This second Villars high level Anticipation Workshop brings together an exclusive and carefully chosen group of leaders in science from across the world to review, discuss in depth and anticipate impactful developments in areas related to eco-augmentation, with a 25 years perspective, in order to address the fundamental issues they raise.
General introduction to the workshop
Eco-augmentation: shaping future ecosystems
Ecosystems are energy systems comprised of both biotic entities - animals, plants and micro-organisms – and their physical environment. In an era marked by climate change, rapidly transforming environmental conditions and an accelerating science and technology landscape, deliberately and strategically enhancing ecological systems through human intervention can be used to regenerate ecological functions and restore biodiversity in a process of ‘eco-augmentation’. Beyond restoration, eco-augmentation can also be used to design novel sustainable or transient ecological systems with original functions.
We recognise that to date, the discourse around ecosystem change and geo-engineering has focused on the immediate and pressing challenges of the Anthropocene-driven climate crisis and ecosystem degradation, with an emphasis on encouraging policy uptake through the generation of irrevocable evidence. Less well discussed are how rapidly evolving changes to the planet, combined with the increasing ability to reach habitats we have never explored before, are providing more opportunities than ever for comprehensively understanding and ultimately designing diverse ecosystems.
Future advances in our understanding of the components of ecosystems, their interactions and evolutionary dynamics, combined with progress in genomics, synthetic biology and data science, will allow novel interventions at the scale of entire ecosystems. Given these possibilities, breakthroughs that enable the deliberate modification of the global ecosystem will alter how we perceive the relationship between humanity and the Earth.
Following an introductory framing keynote highlighting how we can think about humanity’s future on the planet, the conference will focus on eco-augmentation using three interrelated themes: ‘Reading and writing ecosystems’, ‘Transitioning ecosystems’, and ‘Hacking co-evolution’. The following programme can also be consulted on our website and a description of each session is provided below.
The main guiding question for the conference remains the same: can we anticipate new scientific disruptions in the area of eco-augmentation, and what are their implications for our future?
Aim of the annual Villars High-Level Anticipatory Workshops
In order to keep pace with science and technology and its implications, GESDA organises anticipatory workshops with a wide range of leading experts across a broad range of research topics each year, with the outcomes of these workshops feeding directly into the next edition of the Radar.
The highlight of these meetings is an annual in-person workshop in Villars, where we take the time to dive deep into one of the scientific themes in the Radar, in person and over a period of several days. Villars High-Level Anticipatory Workshops aim to obtain the diverse perspectives of a wide range of experts in the field, and as such bring together leading researchers to facilitate in-depth discussions regarding anticipated developments over the next 5, 10 and 25 years. The outcome of these discussions will be formulated into a report which will be published as part of the Radar, and form the basis of further discussions about the implications of the future of research in this area and potential for action in the present at the yearly high level GESDA Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit.
The discussion will take place under Chatham House Rules (meaning no quote will be attributed to a particular individual). During the discussion, we are not looking for consensus, but each perspective should have scientific merit. Differing viewpoints can all be included in the final report. A scientific writer will be present throughout the meeting to capture the discussion and subsequently write the workshop report.
About GESDA – Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator
GESDA is an independent foundation initiated by the Swiss Federal Government and the City and Canton of Geneva, with a mission to anticipate the next generation of cutting-edge scientific advances, bring them to the attention of world leaders, and catalyse concrete action by leveraging the strengths of the International Geneva ecosystem. Our mandate is to develop an instrument of anticipation and action by favouring public-private partnerships of international scope and projects which:

provide solutions to current and future technological challenges,
turn them into opportunities,
and widen the circle of beneficiaries of advances in science and technology.

GESDA does this by:

Anticipating the possible scientific breakthroughs that will impact the world, highlighting their potential impact for people, society and the planet;
Accelerating discussions (with politicians, diplomats, philanthropists, entrepreneurs, NGOs, citizens) to develop global initiatives to ensure everybody benefits from future scientific advances;
Translating solution ideas into concrete projects by brokering coalitions for implementation via an impact fund, in collaboration with multilateral institutions.

Science anticipation
With the rapid pace of science and technology breakthroughs driving significant changes to our world and how we live in it, having agency over our future has never been more important. One of the tools we have for this is anticipation, through which we can use our assessment of what might happen in the future to direct action in the present. GESDA aims to enable this process of anticipation by laying out in its Science Breakthrough Radar the possibilities scientists envisage for the future. In this way, GESDA aims to act as an honest broker between the scientific community and society to encourage open debates about how we wish to shape the future and what opportunities for action can be taken today.

Workshop

Villars High Level Anticipation Workshop on Eco-Augmentation

Eco-Regeneration & Geoengineering

Michael O. HengartnerKevin EsveltAfshin Akhtar-Khavari + 26

With the rapid pace of science and technology breakthroughs driving significant changes to our world and how we live in it, having agency over our future has never been more important. One of the tools we have for this is anticipation, through which we can use our assessment of what might happen in the future to direct action in the present. GESDA aims to enable this process of anticipation by laying out in its Science Breakthrough Radar the possibilities scientists envisage for the future. In this way, GESDA aims to act as an honest broker between the scientific community and society to encourage open debates about how we wish to shape the future and what opportunities for action can be taken today.

Workshop

GESDA Anticipation Workshop - Future Food Systems

Eco-Regeneration & Geoengineering

Nam-Hai ChuaJiayang LiJonathan Jones + 6

Workshop

Anticipating the Future of Peace and War – Second Workshop

Jean-Marie GuéhennoTobias VestnerErik Melander + 6

During the past year, the Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator (GESDA) has consulted over 1200 scientists globally about which scientific advances in the coming 5, 10 and 25 years could have strong implications on the individual, our societies and the planetary ecosystem. This anticipatory mapping is described in the Science Breakthrough Radar and provides an overview of some of the emerging scientific topics which require significant anticipation and attention from world leaders. However, the pace of science and technology is such that this anticipation needs to be constantly reviewed and updated, and take in consideration the latest developments.
The GESDA Anticipation Workshop on Human Applications of Genetic Engineering will discuss and review the latest advances in the field, with a special focus on the 5, 10 and 25 years breakthrough predictions.The workshop will bring together a limited and carefully selected number of leading experts in the fields covered. It will happen under Chatham House Rules and will take the form of a moderated debate on the themes selected.

Workshop

GESDA Anticipation Workshop - Human Applications of Genetic Engineering

Human Augmentation

Robin Lovell-Badge

Use the future to build the present – from science anticipation to global action

Workshop

Swiss GESDA Anticipation Day in Zurich

Peter Brabeck-LetmatheMichael O. HengartnerIsabelle Mansuy + 11

During the past year, the Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator (GESDA) has consulted over 1200 scientists globally about which scientific advances in the coming 5, 10 and 25 years could have strong implications on the individual, our societies and the planetary ecosystem. This anticipatory mapping is described in the Science Breakthrough Radar and provides an overview of some of the emerging scientific topics which require significant anticipation and attention from world leaders. However, the pace of science and technology is such that this anticipation needs to be constantly reviewed and updated, and take in consideration the latest developments.
The GESDA Anticipation Workshop on Advanced Artificial Intelligence will discuss and review the latest advances in the field, with a special focus on the 5, 10 and 25 years breakthrough predictions.The workshop will bring together a limited and carefully selected number of leading experts in the fields covered. It will happen under Chatham House Rules and will take the form of a moderated debate on the themes selected.

Workshop

GESDA Anticipation Workshop - Advanced Artificial Intelligence

Quantum Revolution & Advanced AI

Martin MüllerRüdiger L. UrbankeEmmanuel Abbé

The GESDA approach to anticipating future developments in science relies on the predictions of scientists of developments and breakthroughs that will be impactful in 5, 10 and 25 years. However, while AI, or Quantum computing scientists are determinant in shaping future in AI and in Quantum Computing, political and social scientists are not determinant in shaping the future of politics or social trends. Further reflection on methodologies for anticipation in social and human sciences, and more specifically in the field of peace and security are required. This inaugural workshop in Geneva will bring together selected thought leaders, scholars and experts in the areas of peace and security studies, geopolitics and international relations and identify methodologies and main lines of thought to anticipate the future of peace and war.

Workshop

Anticipating the Future of Peace and War – Inaugural Workshop

Quantum Revolution & Advanced AI

Martin MüllerSirkka HeinonenJean-Marie Guéhenno + 7

The inaugural Villars high level Anticipation Workshop brings together an exclusive and carefully chosen group of leaders in science from across the world to review, discuss in depth and anticipate impactful developments in neuro-augmentation, with a 25 years perspective, in order to address the fundamental issues they raise.
General introduction to the workshop
Under the roof of Neuro Augmentation, the workshop focuses on enhancement of brain functions in three interdisciplinary themes:

Brain Hacking – reading in the brain
Hybrid Brains – chimeras and non-human primate transgenesis, brain capacity enhancement through genetic engineering, transplantation of neuro-organoids
Artificial Cognition – robotics with neural-based and brain-inspired AI

Workshop Venue
The Villars Palace and Victoria Residence provide a unique venue with state-of-the-art conference facilities in the Swiss Alps. It is easily reachable from Geneva International Airport and has access to top skiing facilities.
The workshop will be structured around the three themes described previously and will allow for ample discussion and exploration space between sessions.
Workshop setup
The workshop will be structured around the three themes and will allow for ample discussion and exploration space between sessions.
During the workshop, each session begins with four to five 15 minutes input presentations by participants immediately followed by a short Q&A. The session closes with an hour discussion moderated by the session Chair. Discussions happen under Chatham House Rules, meening that no quote will be attributed to a participant.
The outcomes of the conference will be published and included in the 2023 GESDA Science Breakthrough Radar. They will provide the basis for further debates at GESDA's High-Level Summit on 11-13 October in Geneva and foster interactions with member of the GESDA Diplomacy Forum about the implications of these advances and what the global community can do to reap the benefits of anticipated advances, while ameliorating risks and undesired societal impacts.
About GESDA – Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator
The governments of Switzerland and Geneva founded GESDA in 2019 as an independent foundation to leverage the anticipative power of science with diplomacy organizations and citizens working in Geneva and around the world.
They created it based on the growing awareness:

That the world is experiencing breakthrough science and technological discoveries at an unprecedented speed;
That these breakthroughs will reshape how we view ourselves as humans, how we relate to each other in society and how we care for our environment;
That humanity, especially people living in less advanced or emerging countries, cannot afford to miss the potential of those science and technology advances for global well-being and inclusive development.

The Foundation aims, in favour of multilateralism, to leverage the International Geneva ecosystem to anticipate, accelerate and translate into concrete actions the use of emerging science-driven topics. It does so by:

anticipating the possible scientific breakthroughs that will impact the world, highlighting their potential impact for people, society and the planet;
accelerating the discussions (with politicians, diplomats, philanthropists, entrepreneurs, NGOs, citizens) around global initiatives to be developed to make sure everybody benefits from those scientific advances;
translating these solution ideas into concrete projects by bringing together the coalitions to implement them, in collaboration with multilateral institutions.

During the past two years, GESDA has consulted extensively over 1200 scientists globally about which scientific advances in the coming 5, 10 and 25 years could have strong implications about the future of human-kind and our planet.
It has the ambition to provide:

a unique space of convergence that allows direct reflections with leading scientists in related but distinct areas of science;
an innovative space for anticipation that permits discussions about future cutting-edge research in areas related to brain- and neuro-enhancement outside of one’s immediate core research area, and;
a direct bridge to diplomacy that extends to interactions with leaders from diplomacy and impact in a dedicated follow-up meeting in summer and culminating at the Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit in October 2023, a high-level event that gathers scientists, diplomats, ministers and decision-makers in Geneva and which will be held for the third time to discuss and act on the implications of those anticipated advances in science.

Workshop

Villars High Level Anticipation Workshop on Neuro Augmentation

Patrick AebischerMichael O. HengartnerMu-ming Poo + 20