The resources available in space divide broadly into two categories: those that can be used to support in-space activities and those that can eventually be brought back to Earth⁴. Most of the near-term opportunities involve using resources in situ, with Moon exploration set to become a significant driver of science and technology in this area.

Future Horizons:

×××

5-yearhorizon

Moon landings trigger public debate on lunar resources

NASA’s Artemis programme and commercial landers increases global interest in the Moon with missions demonstrating the first extraction of water and metals from the lunar surface. This work drives an international debate on how best to exploit the Moon, to spread the benefits across all humanity while preserving the lunar environment for future generations.

10-yearhorizon

Energy from orbit comes of age

The first demonstrations of continuous transmissions of solar power from orbit to Earth provide valuable momentum for net-zero efforts, driven particularly by countries like Japan that have limited terrestrial resources of their own. But the cost of the enterprise raises questions about the ability to scale production to levels that will have significant impact.

25-yearhorizon

The Moon becomes the gateway to the solar system

Lunar mining facilities begin to continuously produce propellant, metals and building materials on a usable scale. This paves the way for a lunar base that is a self-supporting manufacturing facility for beyond-Earth space exploration.

Operating on the Moon will require locally produced resources, such as water extracted from ice at the lunar poles. This can be broken down into oxygen and hydrogen for propellant and life support, and the first pilot mission to demonstrate this capability will be an important milestone. The lunar regolith is also likely to be a rich resource for building materials and metals, particularly iron, aluminium and silicon for solar-panel manufacture. Characterising the make-up of the regolith and the ice it contains will be an important early goal for these missions.

Near-Earth asteroids are a more distant potential source of precious metals, ores and ices. But the huge cost of such missions is a significant stumbling block.

In 2023, the Space Solar Power Demonstrator (SSPD-1) satellite demonstrated that solar power could be harvested in space and beamed to Earth in the form of microwaves. Future challenges include scaling the panels to the kilometre scale.⁵

A different kind of resource is found on the far side of the Moon: a unique radio silence that astronomers hope will give them access to clear signals from elsewhere in the universe.

Extraterrestrial resources - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.