Giant networks of communications satellites are already a reality, with constellations belonging to Starlink and EutelSat OneWeb already in orbit. These fleets will quickly become more capable as companies deploy satellite-to-satellite laser communications. Real-time video feeds from space are also gaining in popularity.¹⁰

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Satellite internet services become global

The competition among commercial companies to offer satellite broadband internet connections drives down the cost of connection and helps solve the long-standing problem of providing rural internet access, particularly in developing countries. International standards agreed for deorbiting spacecraft at the end of their useful lives.

10-yearhorizon

Innovation in satellite refuelling brings down cost

The first automated refuelling of a commercial satellite doubles its operational lifetime and once again lowers the cost of operating in space.

25-yearhorizon

Improved satellite manoeuvrability

Lunar operations lead to international standards for coordinate systems, for timing, communications and above all safety. The establishment of these standards provides a foundation for a globally representative lunar community.

With launch costs dropping, satellite operators are experimenting with off-the-shelf components for imaging, sensing and communicating at lower cost.

One important limit on satellite lifetime is the amount of onboard fuel. With high-end satellites costing hundreds of millions, refuelling is an attractive way to extend lifetimes. Lockheed Martin¹¹ and Northrop Grumman¹² are among companies developing a standard refuelling capability for satellites. This will require greater manoeuvrability: changing orbits and rendezvousing with other craft remains difficult, requiring plentiful fuel and agile propulsion systems.¹³

However, Russia appears to have perfected this technique in spacecraft that are able to approach and inspect other vehicles. ¹⁴ This technique, known as proximity operations, will no doubt be useful, enabling applications such as automated refuelling of spacecraft. The development of proximity operations also raises security concerns, as it enables the disruption or even disabling of civil and military satellites.

The increased activity on the Moon and in lunar orbit will require a lunar time zone, with satellites proving timing, positioning and communications. That will require significant collaboration to develop international standards.

Satellite innovation - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.