For example, these conditions ought to allow for higher-quality versions of pharmaceuticals, metals or semiconductors that can outperform those made on Earth.9 That should mean that large spare-part inventories for space-based operations will become a thing of the past.
The most important manufacturing limitation is the availability of power. Kilowatt power sources exist, but megawatts are needed for industrial-scale production. Finding ways to establish these is an important goal for space agencies and commercial operators such as Blue Origin.
Larger power systems will enable the manufacture and construction of bigger structures like remote-sensing antennas, the building blocks for human habitation modules and semiconductor fabrication.
The longer-term goal is to find ways to exploit resources on Mars and near-Earth asteroids, which may be accelerated by construction of a Moon base and the exploitation of lunar water ice, which can be readily turned into oxygen and hydrogen for propulsion and life support.
The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:
This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.
