Use the future to build the present
Trust and Co-operation Modelling
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1Quantum Revolution& Advanced AI2HumanAugmentation3Eco-Regeneration& Geo-Engineering4Science& Diplomacy1.11.21.31.42.12.22.32.43.13.23.33.43.54.14.24.34.44.5HIGHEST ANTICIPATIONPOTENTIALAdvancedArtificial IntelligenceQuantumTechnologiesBrain-inspiredComputingBiologicalComputingCognitiveEnhancementHuman Applications of Genetic EngineeringRadical HealthExtensionConsciousnessAugmentation DecarbonisationWorldSimulationFuture FoodSystemsSpaceResourcesOceanStewardshipComplex Systems forSocial EnhancementScience-basedDiplomacyInnovationsin EducationSustainableEconomicsCollaborativeScience Diplomacy
1Quantum Revolution& Advanced AI2HumanAugmentation3Eco-Regeneration& Geo-Engineering4Science& Diplomacy1.11.21.31.42.12.22.32.43.13.23.33.43.54.14.24.34.44.5HIGHEST ANTICIPATIONPOTENTIALAdvancedArtificial IntelligenceQuantumTechnologiesBrain-inspiredComputingBiologicalComputingCognitiveEnhancementHuman Applications of Genetic EngineeringRadical HealthExtensionConsciousnessAugmentation DecarbonisationWorldSimulationFuture FoodSystemsSpaceResourcesOceanStewardshipComplex Systems forSocial EnhancementScience-basedDiplomacyInnovationsin EducationSustainableEconomicsCollaborativeScience Diplomacy

Sub-Field:

4.2.4Trust and Co-operation Modelling

Computer scientists have begun to create systems in which autonomous agents have to find ways to co-operate by distinguishing good agents from untrustworthy ones. This has been applied to a wide range of problems, ranging from information routing algorithms to online search rankings to recommendation algorithms. But there is broader sense in which trust and co-operation studies are useful—in modelling the way people behave in the groups that make up societies.13

In any society, business or network, the ability to evaluate and then trust partners is a crucial component of co-operation. For that reason, trust has been described as “part of the glue that holds our society together.”14 Applying trust modelling to the networks of actors at work in the diplomatic landscape has the potential to better model potential outcomes of discussions, votes and negotiations.

This work comes at an important time. The role of trust in broader society has been thrown into sharp focus by the phenomenon of fake news, manipulated images and deepfake videos. The diplomatic landscape is powerfully shaped by the information that flows through it, and false and misleading information has huge disruptive potential and can have significant consequences in processes and negotiations where much is at stake.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Data veracity becomes a global research issue

The increased importance of data-gathering and analysis places a greater focus on data sources and their veracity. This leads to increased research in data verification research.

10-yearhorizon

Stakeholders battle over reputation and trust

Reputation-building and trust become key factors for stakeholders in a wide range of data gathering disciplines ranging from news organisations, to scientific institutions to national and multinational organisations. Managing trust and reputation are potential battle grounds for some actors.

25-yearhorizon

AI oversees data veracity

Machine vision and artificial intelligence become important arbitrators of trust in data, news and images. However, an insidious cat-and-mouse game continues between malicious actors and those attempting to shut them down.

Trust and Co-operation Modelling - Anticipation Scores

How the experts see this field in terms of the expected time to maturity, transformational effect across science and industries, current state of awareness among stakeholders and its possible impact on people, society and the planet. See methodology for more information.