Computational Diplomacy, for one, is concerned with our emerging ability to map the landscape of international relations, to gather and analyse data on unprecedented scales and to simulate potential outcomes. This has transformational potential for diplomatic activity. For instance, efforts have already begun to plot the networks of influence between actors on an international scale and to use artificial intelligence to mine the large databases of texts relating to historical negotiations. As such, Computational Diplomacy is revealing not only the complexity of modern international relations but the potential knock-on effects of future actions. It also allows actors to better understand the history of negotiations, how changes in language reveal movements in position and to reduce uncertainty in formulating plans.
Negotiation Engineering, on the other hand, is a solution-oriented approach to negotiation problems that uses quantitative methods in a heuristic way to find an adequate solution. In doing so, it particularly draws on the decomposition and the formalisation of the problem(s) at hand and the heuristic application of mathematical methods, such as game theory and mathematical optimisation. This way, it can de-emotionalise negotiation problems and allow for resolutions of more complex real-world issues.
Other fields of growing importance that are considered under “scientification of diplomacy” are predictive peacekeeping (see 4.2.3) and trust and cooperation modelling (see 4.2.4) which all combine advances in other disciplines with the practice of diplomacy. For the process of diplomacy, these new approaches, in particular Computational Diplomacy and Negotiation Engineering, raise the possibility that future negotiations will successfully bring together broader groups of stakeholders in more complex negotiations, while allowing progress with fewer missteps. The expected outcome is a contribution to greater chances of international stability.
SELECTION OF GESDA BEST READS AND KEY REPORTS:
In July 2023, Florian Cafiero from Paris’ Sciences Po presented a comprehensive dive into the burgeoning realm of digital international relations in Datafying diplomacy: How to enable the computational analysis and support of international negotiations. Spotlighting the promise of "computational diplomacy," the article pinpoints a crucial challenge: ensuring the dependability and availability of data tailored to diplomatic needs. Shyama V. Ramani and Maximilian Bruder published How ChatGPT might be able to help the world’s poorest and the organisations that work with them in August. Venturing deep into the potential and limitations of ChatGPT in marginalised areas, the article sheds light on the delicate balance of AI's empowerment potential against the lurking threats of misinformation. In September, Thomas Chadefaux of Trinity College Dublin published An automated pattern recognition system for conflict, exploring the cutting-edge capabilities of pattern detection. The system, designed to provide real-time conflict escalation forecasts, heralds a new era for computational diplomacy by offering diplomats vital information on geopolitical risks.
