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Opportunities
Use the future to build the present
Opportunities
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1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology
1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology
    So... what can we do about it?
    The GESDA Science Breakthrough Radar presents an overview of some of the world’s most anticipated scientific disruptions and how the world’s citizens are discussing, perceiving and acting in response to them. These breakthroughs and the related discussions contribute to our evolving understanding of what makes us human and how we relate to each other and to our ecosystem. GESDA was developed to anticipate those future breakthroughs and their impacts. The key question now is what can and should be done about it.

    By leveraging the Geneva International ecosystem and the diplomacy community at large, GESDA aims to accelerate the ways in which we can derive collective benefits, making the most of opportunities to translate proposals into concrete initiatives, and creating new ways for different stakeholders to contribute to a better future. In doing so, we can move from scientific anticipation to anticipatory science diplomacy in order to:

    • respond more effectively and more quickly to emerging and future challenges, always keeping the huge costs of non-anticipation and missed opportunities in mind.

    • help — as an honest broker — multilateralism adapt to the acceleration of science, ensuring that its benefits are co-developed and enjoyed by all of the world’s inhabitants equally.

    • offer a platform for joint deliberation across all communities on possible solutions to the emerging challenges. In this spirit, the annual Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit examines the most anticipated scientific disruptions in order to build consensus around potential initiatives for addressing practical problems.

    This is why this last section of the Science Breakthrough Radar, in analogy to GESDA’s Anticipatory Situation Room Methodology, is reflecting on the necessary ingredients to move from the knowing to the acting, or in GESDA’s words, from Think Tank to Do Tank. The essays, Acting as a Honest Broker, The Cost of Non-Anticipation and The Ethics of Anticipation presented in the past edition and available on the digital edition of this report provide additional essential reflections about the required essential ingredients and how to understand the key summit takeaways presented in the following pages. It contains a report on the incubation phase of the Open Quantum Institute and a summary of the 2022 GESDA Summit, with an introduction to the event, and a selection of proceedings and takeaway messages serving as a basis for the collective solution development process.

    Taking the pulse of Diplomacy
    Diplomacy, multilateralism, the role of states and the involvement of society are rapidly evolving. Science and technology are driving change but so are global challenges such as climate change, geopolitical tensions, migration, inequalities and nations’ efforts to achieve growth. In order to tackle these challenges, it makes sense to accelerate the use of the opportunities offered by advances in science.
    Assessing Solar Radiation Modification
    Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been scientifically, politically and societally divisive. Some experts don’t even want to discuss proposals to go on with fundamental research in the field. There is fear that future societies could succumb to “techno fix” attitudes, potentially damaging current climate change mitigation policies. Other experts believe that interventions such as cloud brightening, aerosol injection, and creating more reflective surfaces must be part of a possible intervention portfolio, especially if other measures fail. Regardless of position, both sides agree that the planet’s future is in peril and people and governments must act.
    Can We Bolster Democracy Through Technologies?
    Digital threats to democracy – misinformation, propaganda, political tribalism – are trending toward a future of destabilised political and community coherence. Many experts anticipated that greater connectivity and access to information would help build a broader foundation for democratic values, but political projections of the future no longer easily align with these expectations. As digital tools are increasingly used in democratic systems, the judiciary, and other governmental processes, the operating foundation for many nations and their citizens has never had more at stake.
    Collaborating on a Decarbonisation Accelerator
    After COP26, there is global agreement for governments, businesses, and citizens to embark in a decarbonisation global effort at every level. Global decarbonisation efforts are being stalled by objective gaps in science, technology, processes, and diplomacy. The nature of the gaps is often complex and systemic, and therefore impossible to solve with linear or single party solutions. Solutions currently in the pipeline need to be accelerated to reach the right stage of maturity for their implementation. The global ambition is to achieve net-zero CO2 for 2050, which requires accelerating the energy transition to switch to renewable energy and deploying technologies that directly remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
    Controlling vector transmitted Infectious Disease
    As humans move into previously undisturbed ecosystems, and as climate change broadens areas where vector-transmitted diseases such as dengue fever, Zika, and Chikungunya are present, the need to monitor, detect, contain and, above all, prevent new outbreaks is paramount. Genetic modification of mosquitoes is already being tested to stop disease transmission, but are poorly accepted publicly. The opportunity to constrain disease transmitters with a new biological (non-genetic, hence possibly better accepted) method is within our grasp. This effective method is being evaluated for endorsement by the World Health Organization, while next generation advances in synthetic biology and genetic engineering are looking at even more innovative ways to constrain disease, such as modifying the human microbiome to resist such viruses.
    Creating a Global Curriculum on Science & Diplomacy
    A new mindset and professional pathway are needed to establish Anticipatory Science & Diplomacy methodologies among experts and decision-makers. We must start with the way we train our current and future leaders across all sectors: in STEM fields, in national governments, in multilateral institutions, and in the private sector – to empower the current and next generation with a "multilingual" mindset in science and diplomacy and foster boundary spanning professionals and institutions.
    Defining Usage Frameworks for Organoids
    Organoids are tiny, self-organised three-dimensional cell cultures that replicate the complexity of human organs. They are already providing insights into diseases pathologies, drug development, transplantation options, behaviour and genetics, brain research and even learning networks. This rich field of research agendas and commercial needs could usher in a revolution in innovative diagnostics, therapeutics, and commercial ecosystems connected to personalised medicine.
    Enabling Digital Empowerment with Trust and Transparency
    In a complex, changing and interconnected world, digital twins and avatars are set to become a norm for decision-making in policy, ecology and the economy. Currently, several initiatives plan digital avatars and digital twins on the scale of individuals (in precision medicine), local municipalities (digital urban twins for city management) and the planet (climate forecasting, epidemic control). Sensor webs enable real-time synchronization of such twins and avatars with the physical world. Building trust between the science and diplomacy communities in this area is urgently needed.
    How can We Prepare for Collaborative Human-Machine Intelligence
    In many fields, such as healthcare applications, economic modelling, and social robotics, the mix of human experience and computational capabilities combine to generate breakthroughs in understanding population dynamics, climate cycles, and even management processes. Collaborative human-machine intelligence ranges from combining data analytics with decision-making humans to interactive knowledge developed through interconnected biological and technological systems. As these collaborative technologies advance, the future of knowledge economies hangs in the balance.
    Navigating the NeuroTech Compass
    Recent technological advances in electronic miniaturization, brain signal detection, and the use of artificial intelligence (AI) for data analysis pave the way to a better understanding of neurological and mental health disorders. Anticipated developments offer potential for health, communication, good regulation, and memory enhancements. This outlook has generated huge financial investments from the public and private sectors, bringing the technologies to patients and consumers more quickly. Other applications, outside the medical field, are developing rapidly for neuromarketing, gaming and entertainment, and military purposes. With the scientific and technological landscapes rapidly accelerating, a global and inclusive approach enabling their development remains a challenge.
    Reshaping Reality in Tomorrow’s Society
    Augmented and extended reality technologies which blend our digital and physical experiences are beginning to transform industry, work, education, and social platforms. With tens of billions of dollars being invested today to lead to a transition in the way people use their smartphones, consume information, and interact with each other, the extended reality ecosystem could be a $1.5 trillion opportunity by 2030. The blurring of boundaries between realities, however, holds enormous implications for how citizens, communities, and leaders comprehend the world around them.
    Synthetic Biology, towards new geopolitical and economic frontiers
    Technological advances in genetic engineering and synthetic biology lead to a fast-growing number of purposes such as biofuels, new drugs, replacement organs, and biological threats. The democratisation of such technologies, coupled with the decreasing cost of DNA synthesis, will allow a broader set of actors to generate new organisms, fuelling the need for addressing individual and societal challenges, while raising concerns about the governance of these technology innovations, capacity-building and benefit sharing. The weaponisation of biology could even lead to high impact biological attacks that would be difficult to defend against. In this context, it is essential that policymakers and regulators explore the social, environmental, economic and geopolitical implications of such technology advances.
    What is the Future of Polar Research in the Current Geopolitical Landscape?
    The poles are the most challenging and expensive frontiers on Earth for scientific research and resource acquisition. The current geopolitical situation has put deployed efforts to pursue research in those regions at risk. It is, in fact, accelerating the race to exploit essential resources such as oil, gas, and rare earth minerals. In addition, concerns citing environmental preservation, ecosystem balance, and lack of clear authority or ownership loom over existing approach to the Earth’s poles. Alternatively, the poles and their resources are an important contributor to meeting the demand of a more manageable energy transition.