Anticipating the Future of Peace and War – Inaugural Workshop

General introduction to the workshop

Many academics from a broad variety of fields have indicated we are at a pivot point in history. Three organizations – GESDA, GCSP and SIPA at Columbia - have joined forces to anticipate what this may mean for the future of peace and war.

One area where change is unfolding at an unprecedented pace is in science and technology, in fields such as advanced artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, genome editing, or synthetic biology. These developments have cumulative consequences unseen before. They are reshaping altogether who we are, how we relate to each other and interact with the environment, our planet and its resources.

During the past year, the Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator (GESDA) has consulted over 1200 scientists globally about which scientific advances in the coming 5, 10 and 25 years could have strong implications on the individual, our societies and the planetary ecosystem. This anticipatory mapping is described in the Science Breakthrough Radar and provides an overview of some of the scientific emerging topics which require significant anticipation and attention from world leaders.

The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) was established in 1985 and is an international foundation serving a global community of individuals and organisations. Its mission is to advance peace, security and international cooperation. It provides the knowledge, skills and network for effective and inclusive decision-making through executive education, diplomatic dialogue, research and policy advice. It has long focused on building leadership skills and knowledge to secure peace. It has recently strengthened its work in strategic foresight as a means of navigating growing uncertainty and ever more rapid change. It is also developing expertise in the future of warfare.

The Columbia University’s SIPA Kent Leadership Programme on Conflict Resolution is the new programme led by the former UN Under Secretary-General for UN Peacekeeping, Prof. Jean-Marie Guéhénno which helps prepare the next generation of global practitioners for the complexities of contemporary and future conflict. As the evolution of conflict calls for new thinking, the Kent Program is exploring innovative responses, among them how to harness the power of public institutions, civil society and business so that they form a "Golden Triangle" that contributes effectively to conflict resolution and peaceful societies. The program combines the knowledge and academic rigor of the faculty of Columbia University with the experience of practitioners who can share the real-life situations they are confronting;

The latter two institutions contributed reflections to GESDA’s 2022 Science Breakthrough Radar, with their own initial anticipatory reflections about the future of peace and war: Warfare at the Technological Edge and The vital role of debate and difference.

While these contributions provide a first glimpse of a possible future, tools to anticipate the future of peace and war are less well developed than in many other fields. This project aims at developing the methodological frameworks and tools to better identify the relevant trends and counter-trends shaping the future of peace and war. This requires understanding the major current lines of thoughts within the field and identifying the fundamental questions they raise about the future of peace and war.

Starting with an initial series of workshops in Geneva and New York , and culminating with a dedicated session at GESDA’s high level science and diplomacy anticipation summit in October 2023, this work will lead to the establishment of a permanent forum advising high level policy makers on the nature of future conflicts and the ways to address them.

Meeting venue

The Maison de la Paix is a place to meet, to think and to act. Opened in 2013, it enables synergies fostering innovative and efficient solutions to promote peace, human security and sustainable development. It is located in the heart of international Geneva, which strengthens its role and outreach on a national and global scale.

Owned by the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, the Maison de la paix is one of Western Switzerland’s contemporary architectural achievements.

La Maison de la Paix Chemin Eugène-Rigot 2D, building ‘Pétale 4’ 1202 Geneva, Switzerland

Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) 5th-floor conference room http://www.maisondelapaix.ch/en/

Desired outcomes

• Agreement on methodology, or alternative options for a methodology to drive this project forward in coming years. The methodology (or methodologies) agreed upon will be tested in the second workshop.
• An indication of the main lines of thought and relevant questions to approach anticipating the future of peace and war.
• The limits and risks of anticipation in this field.
• An initial list of priority areas and priority inter-acting vectors relevant to the future of peace and war to be discussed in more depth at the second workshop.