1.1.4. Alternative AI
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1.1.4. Alternative AI
Use the future to build the present
Alternative AI
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1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology
1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology

Sub-Field:

1.1.4Alternative AI

    Despite progress in deep learning, recreating the kind of flexible and efficient intelligence seen in humans may involve coupling it with other approaches. There are question marks over whether the statistical patterns these algorithms learn can ever equate to true understanding.25 They also require vastly more data and energy to learn than humans, are notoriously bad at transferring knowledge between domains, and are incapable of continuous learning.

    Alternative approaches could solve some of these issues. “Neurosymbolic AI”, for instance, combines statistical learning with structured representations of prior knowledge, often inspired by cognitive science. It appears more capable of common-sense reasoning, and decisions are more readily interpretable by humans.26 While deep learning focuses on finding correlations in data, “Causal AI” seeks to give machines a deeper understanding of cause and effect that could be crucial for general intelligence.27 And “Bayesian AI” approaches use the statistics of probability to help AI better understand the uncertainty of the real world while achieving continuous learning.28

    So far, these approaches have not achieved the same success as deep learning. Many researchers also believe that similar capabilities will emerge spontaneously as deep learning models become larger and more sophisticated. But our theoretical understanding of deep learning lags far behind the practice, making it difficult to spot potential roadblocks to progress. It is possible that some combination of these approaches may be necessary if we want to recreate the kind of general intelligence seen in humans.

    Future Horizons:

    ×××

    5-yearhorizon

    An entirely unpredictable era for AI achievement

    At this timescale predictions about AI are inherently unreliable. If scaling laws hold, then alternative AI approaches are likely to become intellectual backwaters. However, if fundamental barriers to scaling arise, then the most advanced AI systems are likely to be complex architectures incorporating a wide range of modules running very different kinds of algorithms. Incorporating the best of all of these approaches will make it possible to create generally intelligent AI systems that exhibit adaptability, generalisability, common sense, and causal reasoning.

    10-yearhorizon

    Emerging scaling laws determine the future of deep learning

    Even at this timescale, the horizons are unclear. The scaling laws that have governed progress in deep learning could begin to peter out, renewing interest in alternative AI approaches, especially given ethical and other concerns over unintended consequences of deploying deep learning models.  This could result in a shift to hybrid systems that make use of many different AI techniques to boost explainability, efficiency and flexibility. Alternatively, further scaling of model size could lead to the spontaneous emergence of these missing ingredients in deep learning models, causing interest in alternative approaches to wane.

    25-yearhorizon

    Deep learning continues to dominate

    The continued success of deep learning overshadows alternative approaches and diverts resources away from them. Nonetheless, theoretical advances continue and progress is made on building the software tools required to scale these approaches up. Advances in cognitive science provide more clues about the missing ingredients behind general intelligence.

    Alternative AI - Anticipation Scores

    How the experts see this field in terms of the expected time to maturity, transformational effect across science and industries, current state of awareness among stakeholders and its possible impact on people, society and the planet. See methodology for more information.

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