This first session will address methodologies for anticipation in social sciences in general and employed in the area of the future of peace and war in particular. The following questions will be discussed:

• To what extent can the future of peace and war be anticipated?
• What are the limitations of anticipation in this domain?
• How best to anticipate what can not be foreseen and how to capture less visible counter trends ?
• What is the best methodology (-ies) for this project to explore further and road test in the following sessions and workshops?
• How to avoid common pitfalls and remain as close to science as possible (in distinction to some types of strategic foresight or predictions)?

Input Commentaries (20')

Martin Müller

Sirkka Heinonen

The input commentaries are followed by a moderated discussion.

Outcome: Initial methodological framework(s) for an anticipation model of the future of peace and war rooted - as far as feasible - in science