GESDA Anticipation Workshop - Pathogen Biology

Afternoon

Sophie Gilbert

Christian Happi

Decoding infectivity, or the understanding of how pathogens establish, maintain, and transmit infections, is critical not only for predicting pandemic potential and zoonotic spillovers but also for informing the design of targeted antivirals, vaccines, public health interventions and protecting agriculture. Breakthroughs in molecular biology, structural virology, and host-pathogen interaction studies are uncovering the genetic and biochemical determinants that govern infectious potential, and advances in single-cell sequencing, live-cell imaging, and AI-driven modeling are providing unprecedented insights into pathogen entry, replication, and transmission dynamics across diverse hosts. By dissecting the roles of surface proteins, receptor usage, immune evasion mechanisms, and intracellular trafficking, researchers are beginning to map the molecular "blueprints" of infectivity. But what are the current challenges to our understanding of infectivity, and how might these be overcome in the next 5, 10 and 25 years? What opportunities and technological innovations are likely to advance our understanding of infectivity and ability to modulate it over this time period? Here we will discuss anticipated breakthroughs in this area of research and how they are likely to advance our understanding of pathogenicity.

Angela Rasmussen

Integrating traditional surveillance with real-time data streams – such as genomic sequencing, mobility patterns, climate data, and social behaviour – has enhanced our ability to model pathogen spread and anticipate epidemic trajectories. Advances in machine learning, network science, and statistical inference are refining predictive 2025 Science Breakthrough Radar – Anticipation Workshop – Pathogen Biology models, allowing for early detection of transmission hotspots, identification of superspreading events, and evaluation of intervention strategies. As the world faces increasingly complex and interconnected health threats, predictive epidemiology is vital for informing public health responses, guiding vaccine distribution, and improving pandemic preparedness. However, challenges include creating integrated, global surveillance systems as well as equitable data sharing. Here we will discuss how anticipated scientific and technological breakthroughs over the next 5, 10 and 25 years are likely to significantly impact our ability to model and predict pathogen spread, and why.

Al Ozonoff

Moritz Kraemer

Understanding the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens across species barriers is critical for predicting and preventing future outbreaks. Advances in comparative genomics, phylogenetics, and ecological modelling are shedding light on the molecular adaptations that enable cross-species transmission, such as receptor switching, immune modulation, and host-range expansion. Studies of viral quasispecies, bacterial plasmid exchange, and environmental reservoirs are revealing the complex interplay between pathogen evolution and ecological context. As human encroachment on natural habitats intensifies and climate change alters host-pathogen interactions, a deeper grasp of zoonotic evolution is essential for proactive surveillance, pandemic preparedness, and ‘One Health’ strategies. Here we will discuss the current technological and scientific challenges in the field, and how these could be overcome in the next 5, 10 and 25 years.

Isabella Eckerle

mRNA vaccines, gene-editing technologies, monoclonal antibodies, and broad-spectrum antivirals are redefining the speed and precision of response to emerging pathogens. Simultaneously, high-resolution insights into host-pathogen interactions are enabling the development of targeted therapies that disrupt infection at critical nodes. Breakthroughs in our understanding of microbiome modulation, immune training, and synthetic biology are expanding the toolkit for both prevention and treatment of pathogenic infections. Where could future opportunities for intervention arise, and what are the technological challenges facing these new approaches? How might these challenges be overcome, and in what timeframe? Here we will discuss anticipated novel approaches to intervention, and the opportunities they could present in the future for improved responses to pathogenic threats.

Nevan Krogan

Karen Maxwell

Claudia Igler

Christian Happi

GESDA Anticipation Workshop - Pathogen Biology