Extended Reality
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Extended Reality

Photo: "With the Senses of a Spider" by Barbara Schuler, Zurich University of the Arts - ZHDK
Under a Creative CommonsCC BY-SA license
“Extended reality”, or XR, promises to create immersive digital experiences that seamlessly blend real and virtual elements, digitally altering the everyday human experience of reality.

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Augmented reality will change how we see and interact with the world

    It encompasses several overlapping technologies. These include virtual-reality (VR) headsets that transport wearers to simulated worlds, “augmented reality” (AR) systems that overlay digital information onto a user’s view of the real world via a mobile app or smart glasses, and “mixed reality” (MR) devices that transpose interactive virtual elements into the user’s field of vision.1 Consumer headsets are already bringing VR entertainment to the masses, with more advanced offerings from providers such as Meta, Apple and Google also providing some MR functionality.2,3 Although prior investments were made by Microsoft and Apple, AR systems have seen limited uptake by the military and industry,4,5 while simpler AR smart glasses that look like regular eyewear are proving popular with consumers.6,7

    Recent demos of advanced smart glasses by Meta and Google, which squeeze cutting-edge XR functionality into a sleek form factor, show the technology’s potential.8,9 However, these remain research prototypes, highlighting the field’s long-standing challenges with commercial viability. It seems the commercial players are looking to get feedback from users and also create ecosystems to develop applications for their devices, similar to what we have witnessed for smartphones. Creating capable, comfortable and reasonably priced XR hardware, along with the software and infrastructure to support widespread use, will require huge investment.10 So far companies have struggled to find mass-scale consumer use-cases that could justify the sums required.

    However, advances in AI have given the field a boost. Breakthroughs in spatial computing, gesture recognition and language understanding, all of which are powered by AI, promise to boost the capabilities of XR devices. Simultaneously, AI developers are hunting for devices that can take full advantage of the technology’s rapidly improving visual and language skills — a new field called visual-language is developing very fast. Smart glasses not only allow the hands to be free but also view the world through the wearer’s eyes, opening up the prospect of an always-on AI assistant. Such an assistant will be able to seamlessly answer in any language users’ questions about the physical world the user is interacting with, while providing a personalised digital overlay of information in all modalities and 3D, dynamic, visual augmentations.

    The blurring of the boundaries between the physical and digital worlds would entail and hold unknown and potentially enormous implications for society. However, achieving this vision will still require significant hardware advances to balance the competing pressures of performance, cost, and wearability.11,12 Significant advances also have to be made that make it easy to both author or create and use virtual content for XR devices.13 Meanwhile, developers will need to identify more targeted early use-cases to drive the investment needed to make fully fledged XR a consumer technology. Gaming, immersive and hands-on education,14 manufacturing,15 athletic coaching and spectatorship,16 and medical training17 appear to be promising options, each with its own unique contexts and challenges for uptake.

    KEY TAKEAWAYS

    Advances in display technology, wearable sensors, computer vision and AI mean that humans’ everyday experience of reality will increasingly become an integrated mix of inputs from the real world and digital sources. Continuing convergence of these technologies and breakthroughs in Spatial computing are making it possible for AI-powered XR devices to seamlessly merge complex virtual elements into the user’s view of the real world. Realistic immersive experiences will require systems able to truly understand and reason about their environment, and while these capabilities are rudimentary now they are improving fast. It will also be crucial to create intuitive XR interfaces that can dynamically adapt to the user’s needs. New control modalities and wearable sensors are making personalisation and adaptation increasingly possible, though context-aware XR systems remain some way off. Advances in AI, from three-dimensional computer vision to multimodal interfaces, are also opening up the prospect of populating XR environments with smart “agents” or creating intelligent and spatially aware digital assistants. Our understanding of Human-AI interaction in the spatial world remains rudimentary. These interactions also continue to improve with spatial computational technologies, devices and algorithms. Additionally, these possibilities raise a host of practical and ethical questions. While current commercial XR technology is primarily audio-visual, emerging Haptics and multisensory interfaces in research could soon add touch, taste and even smell to future virtual experiences. In the near term these could boost the realism of immersive experiences, but a more distant goal is to compose multisensory narratives that boost immersion.

    Topic:

    Anticipation Potential

    Extended Reality

    Sub-Fields:

    Spatial computing
    XR interfaces
    Human-AI interaction
    Haptics and multisensory interfaces
    Extended Reality has seen rapid advances in the last few years, and major breakthroughs in Spatial computing and immersive computing are expected in the coming five years. Haptics and multisensory interfaces still require another 10 years of research and development before they reach maturity. The successful integration of systems that combine human and artificial intelligence will be needed to make XR devices truly transformative. Overall, this is an area with high scope for action in the present.

    Anticipatory Impact:

    Three fundamental questions guide GESDA’s mission and drive its work: Who are we, as humans? How can we all live together? How can we ensure the well-being of humankind and the sustainable future of our planet? We asked researchers from the field to anticipate what impact future breakthroughs could have on each of these dimensions. This wheel summarises their opinions when considering each of these questions, with a higher score indicating high anticipated impact, and vice versa.

    • Anticipated impact on who we are as humans
    • Anticipated impact on how we will all live together
    • Anticipated impact on the well-being of humankind and sustainable future of our planet

    Spatial computing

    To convincingly merge complex virtual elements with real-world environments, XR devices will need to understand and interact with their surroundings. These capabilities will be powered by AI that can use various sensor technologies to create and use spatial content while perceiving and reasoning spatially.

    Future Horizons:

    ×××

    5-yearhorizon

    3D reconstruction and geometric reasoning progresses rapidly

    In the near term, low-cost headsets become commercially viable at higher scale. Then the demand for better spatial-computing capabilities from a range of AI-application areas drives rapid progress in 3D reconstruction and geometric reasoning. This brings some high-value XR use cases, such as in manufacturing and production, into practical reach, making the field increasingly commercially attractive and spurring major new investments.

    10-yearhorizon

    XR goes mainstream

    XR achieves mainstream adoption and becomes widely used in retail, education and healthcare. Highly realistic and physically accurate “digital twins” of real-world objects and locations become widely used by urban planners, engineers and manufacturers for real-time monitoring, design and process optimisation.

    25-yearhorizon

    Virtual and physical reality are intermeshed

    The boundaries between virtual and physical reality dissolve. Everyday objects and environments have persistent digital layers that are accessible and modifiable through XR devices, and virtual elements are permanently and seamlessly interwoven into physical reality. XR evolves from immersive simulations to a foundational platform for human experience, transforming learning, creativity, work and entertainment.

    Algorithmic advances now make it possible to use inexpensive cameras and motion sensors to simultaneously track a device’s location and map its surroundings.18 Advanced computer vision can also convert 2D images captured from moving cameras into detailed 3D models of spaces and objects19,20 and use them to reconstruct photorealistic 3D scenes from any point of view,21,22 enabling the virtualisation of entire environments. AI can also layer these 3D models with semantic labels that categorise objects and features within the environment,23 and seamlessly integrate virtual elements into scenes by allowing them to collide with or be occluded by real-world objects.24 Many of these capabilities are now integrated into freely available software development kits from large technology and gaming companies.25,26

    However, developing a truly immersive XR experience will require AI models that can go beyond simply mapping and reconstructing 3D environments to understanding and reasoning about them. Fortunately, solving these problems will be crucial for a wide range of AI applications, including self-driving cars, robots and drones, so considerable resources are already going into this problem. Vision-language models trained on large amounts of image and text data appear capable of some degree of spatial reasoning.27,28 But “world models”, which learn rich representations of an environment’s spatial and physical properties to make predictions of how it will evolve over time, could be even more promising.29,30

    Spatial computing - Anticipation Scores

    The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

    1. The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
    2. The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
    3. The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

    This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.

    XR interfaces

    Creating immersive virtual experiences will require technology that is highly adaptive to the user and their needs. While the rich body of evolving research on human-computer interaction provides a solid foundation,31 XR interfaces will have to take account of the unique and different ways that humans interact with their spatial environment in different contexts.32

    Future Horizons:

    ×××

    5-yearhorizon

    XR experience becomes highly fluid and intuitive

    Rapid improvements in the ability to track hands, face and eyes make it possible to pick up almost imperceptible physical cues that indicate the user’s attention, intention and emotional state. This is used to power highly adaptive user interfaces that make XR experiences even more fluid and intuitive than real life.

    10-yearhorizon

    XR becomes globally available

    Hardware advances make lightweight, affordable and energy-efficient devices as common as smartphones. AI embedded in these devices makes it possible to provide context-aware experiences, making real-time environmental adjustments to personalise content to the user’s needs and situation.

    25-yearhorizon

    Users’ thoughts directly interface with XR

    Brain-computer interfaces become the predominant interface for XR, allowing users to control and experience virtual environments via thought alone. This dramatically improves accessibility of XR technology and enables users to visualise, manipulate and inhabit information and environments in ways that are intuitive and deeply personalised.

    Many XR headsets today come with handheld controllers, but interaction is becoming increasingly multimodal. On many devices, camera-based gesture recognition and eye-tracking allow users to interact with virtual elements through simple hand movements or by using their visual focus as a cursor. Beyond providing more intuitive control options, the wide range of sensors embedded in leading XR devices can provide powerful insights into the user’s attention, intent and actions.

    Machine-learning models can analyse eye-tracking data and ego-centric video captured by XR devices to infer what activity a user is engaged in33,34 or even to infer their intention to interact with both virtual and physical objects.35 Eye-tracking data can also provide a window into the user’s attention and level of engagement.36 When combined with basic physiological monitoring, it can also help to monitor the user’s cognitive load while carrying out tasks in XR.37

    By combining these user-centric insights with spatial information, virtual elements and control interfaces can be adapted to the user’s immediate context in real time.38 This can be used to both improve the usability of virtual interfaces39 and overlay helpful information and control options onto real-world objects.40,41 It can even reduce the need for real-world physical interfaces, given the advances in “internet of things” connectivity between XR devices and the physical world. It can also make it possible for XR systems to detect when the user’s ability to interact with specific controls and interfaces is impaired by things like poor lighting, noise or multi-tasking, and adapt accordingly.42

    XR interfaces - Anticipation Scores

    The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

    1. The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
    2. The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
    3. The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

    This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.

    Human-AI interaction

    XR technologies will make it possible for humans to interact with AI agents embodied in both physical and virtual environments. This could enable powerful new forms of AI-human collaboration but will require major advances in both the fundamental capabilities of agents and their ability to interact smoothly with the user.

    Future Horizons:

    ×××

    5-yearhorizon

    AI agents become a common XR feature

    AI-powered virtual agents that can communicate in natural language and demonstrate spatial understanding become a common feature of XR experiences. AI is able to dynamically enhance the appearance of the user’s 3D representation, or avatar, in virtual spaces to enhance communication and improve social experiences.

    10-yearhorizon

    XR users enjoy an always-on virtual assistant

    XR devices featuring embedded AI agents with access to the full suite of sensors become commonplace. This provides users with an always-on virtual assistant that can help with everyday tasks in the real world and augment their perception with useful information and helpful virtual elements. The AI can even assist with real-time control of the user’s avatar in virtual spaces, making movements more graceful or modifying their speech to make it more fluent.

    25-yearhorizon

    Users’ everyday reality is powered by XR

    The use of AI-powered XR devices becomes so ubiquitous that the technology is no longer seen as a virtual assistant but instead as a natural part of the user. AI mediates people’s perception around the clock, making it a fundamental component of their everyday reality. These tools increasingly exert control over the way people behave in the real world as well as in virtual spaces.

    The rapidly improving reasoning and decision-making capabilities of large language models now allow them to take control of simulated bodies in virtual environments to solve a variety of tasks.43,44 The ability of these embodied “agents” to communicate in natural language also enables them to collaborate with each other, as well as with humans, to tackle challenges.45 This is opening up the prospect of populating virtual environments with interactive AI characters for both entertainment and to act as digital co-workers.46 Integrating agents into XR devices and providing them with access to their suite of sensors could also enable always-on digital assistants that see the world through the user’s eyes.47

    Considerable challenges remain. Even today’s most powerful models exhibit only limited embodied intelligence,48 and our understanding of how AI and humans interact remains rudimentary.49 Evidence suggests that creating useful digital assistants is challenging, and poorly designed AI can often hinder rather than help.50,51

    Nonetheless, the possibility raises a host of practical and ethical questions. Should AI agents be embodied in human form, and how will their appearance and personality reinforce social biases? Will users control their own agents, or will they be services provided by companies? Should agents be able to augment how others perceive the user in virtual spaces, adjusting their appearance, movements and even speech? And if agents can digitally alter the user’s XR environment to boost immersion or enhance productivity, how do we ensure this doesn’t lead to deception or manipulation?52

    Human-AI interaction - Anticipation Scores

    The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

    1. The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
    2. The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
    3. The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

    This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.

    Haptics and multisensory interfaces

    Current XR technology is primarily audio-visual, but this is unlikely to remain the case in the future. Emerging haptic technology promises to boost immersion by adding a variety of new sensory experiences to virtual environments.53

    Future Horizons:

    ×××

    5-yearhorizon

    XR experiences are commonly multisensory

    Lightweight and power-efficient wearable haptic devices, combined with increasingly compact mid-air haptic set-ups, make it commonplace for XR experiences to be multisensory. Olfactory stimuli are increasingly used to deepen immersion in XR environments by replicating some of the distinctive smells associated with specific locations.

    10-yearhorizon

    Virtual and real experiences become increasingly similar

    Advances in haptics and multisensory interfaces provide senses of touch, force feedback and smell that are so realistic that virtual experiences are increasingly indistinguishable from real ones. Haptic feedback is provided by a combination of wearable devices and robots that dynamically reconfigure the user’s physical environment. Researchers codify the “language” of smell and taste, making it possible to use these senses to evoke nuanced and highly personal emotional responses in users.

    25-yearhorizon

    Brain-computer interfaces evoke realistic multisensory experiences

    The advent of XR mediated by brain‑computer interfaces allows direct control of the user’s senses. This makes it possible to evoke multisensory experiences that are identical to those experienced in the real world. It may even be possible to achieve heightened levels of sensory experience not accessible in everyday life.

    A wide range of wearable haptic devices has been developed to simulate various tactile sensations such as pressure, texture and temperature.54 These include gloves, vests and bracelets that rely on a variety of approaches to generate tactile illusions such as vibrating electromechanical devices, electrical stimulation or shape-changing materials. These devices can be cumbersome, though, which is spurring growing interest in “mid-air haptics”, which uses ultrasound beams to stimulate the skin and generate highly modifiable tactile sensations without physical contact.55,56 Another emerging approach involves using mobile robots to simulate virtual objects57 or even reconfiguring physical environments to match the virtual one.58

    Simulating the chemical senses of taste and smell is now becoming feasible. So-called gustatory interfaces are making it possible to recreate taste sensations in virtual experiences.59,60 Olfactory interfaces can be combined with software that is able to recreate how smells evolve over space and time.61,62

    In the near term, haptic technology could play an important role enhancing the realism of mixed-reality training in fields like medicine.63 But in the future it could also make XR experiences more immersive and boost their emotional depth.64,65,66 However, this will require us to move away from using isolated haptic stimuli as an accessory to audio-visual experiences and instead work out how sequences of sensations can be combined to compose multisensory narratives.

    Haptics and multisensory interfaces - Anticipation Scores

    The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

    1. The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
    2. The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
    3. The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

    This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.