New and improved dating techniques mean that some ancient artefacts can be directly and precisely dated, reducing the need for educated guesswork. Improved excavation methods are revealing subtle traces of past human activity, and of climatic and ecological shifts, that would previously have gone unnoticed. As in other fields, AI is beginning to be used and has already led to significant breakthroughs.
As a result, questions that were previously unanswerable can now be approached, and concepts that were once taken for granted have been assigned greater nuance or even disregarded. However, certain problems remain to be solved. One is that archaeology is afflicted by severe preservation bias. Materials such as stone can survive well in archaeological deposits, while more perishable substances like wood are prone to decay rapidly. As a consequence, our understanding of the past is skewed towards materials that survive and regions of the world with good preservation conditions.
The field also faces many equity issues. Researchers from the Global South are under-represented in the field generally, while also being particularly under-represented in more technical fields such as molecular-level analysis.1 There is also a need to clarify questions of ownership of ancient materials, which are often cross-national. And the field has yet to deal with a legacy of betrayal of Indigenous peoples by past generations of archaeologists.
There is also an urgent need for many more open-access online databases and standardised formatting to improve the general accessibility of archaeological data. Nonetheless, a growing diversity of peoples and approaches in archaeology is questioning long-standing dogmas. A more nuanced understanding of concepts like gender, hierarchy and societal resilience is reshaping our understanding of many past societies, providing a dynamic narrative that, along with the new generation of tools and techniques, offers reasons for optimism concerning future developments in the field.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
New scientific techniques have proved a boon to archaeology, enabling researchers to fill gaps in data and answer previously unanswerable questions about the past. Progress in Molecular-level analysis of ancient human remains has enabled the extraction of ancient human DNA even when no other remains are extant. The field of proteomics has supplemented this, providing valuable information about remains even where no viable DNA exists. In-depth isotopic analysis has revealed new details of hominin diets. Similar techniques have allowed the Molecular-level analysis of ancient non-human remains, revealing details about the ecosystems, diet, illnesses and existential threats associated with hominin life across a broad sweep of space and time. Scientific advances are also improving Palaeoclimate studies, allowing links to be made between extreme climatic events and societal disruptions, potentially giving insights into the adaptability and resilience of ancient hominin populations. Advances in remote sensing, isotopic analysis, non-invasive scanning and radio-dating techniques are Exposing and decoding world heritage with unprecedented clarity, providing new insights into the origins of artefacts, the extent of ancient trade networks and the details of cultural achievements.
Three fundamental questions guide GESDA’s mission and drive its work: Who are we, as humans? How can we all live together? How can we ensure the well-being of humankind and the sustainable future of our planet? We asked researchers from the field to anticipate what impact future breakthroughs could have on each of these dimensions. This wheel summarises their opinions when considering each of these questions, with a higher score indicating high anticipated impact, and vice versa.
The most prominent molecular technique is the extraction and analysis of ancient DNA.3 Genetic material obtained from bones and other remains has yielded near-complete genome sequences from tens of thousands of years ago. As well as dramatic results like Neanderthal-human interbreeding, ancient DNA has revealed when and how humans have migrated throughout the world as well as family relationships and kinship patterns.4 More recent techniques have even enabled extraction of ancient DNA from sediments, allowing species to be identified when no physical remains are left.5 Researchers are now developing techniques for obtaining ancient DNA underwater.6
More recently, proteomics has been developed to a high standard. Certain proteins preserve better than DNA, notably in teeth, so proteomics can sometimes be used even when all DNA has been lost.7 While not as informative as DNA, these proteins can be used to identify species, as well as traits such as sex. Proteins can also be recovered from dental calculus (mineralised dental plaque), and entrapped dietary proteins in calculus can be used to reconstruct detailed information about foods that are otherwise archaeologically invisible, such as dairy products and spices.
Researchers can also now make extensive use of isotopes to reveal details such as the diets of ancient humans,8 providing evidence of the consumption of meat, fish and plants.9,10 While isotope chemistry is a long-standing field, new isotopic systems are regularly introduced and new applications identified.11 Combined with other forms of evidence such as microwear on teeth, these analyses have significantly altered our ideas about past hominins’ diets.12
The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:
This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.
AI enables identification of the most common flora and fauna specimens, such as pollen and teeth. Environmental DNA from sediments and other sources is routinely used to reconstruct past ecosystems. Researchers reconstruct past food webs using a combination of isotope analyses, tooth wear and other tools.
Animals, plants and other organisms can be identified from their physical remains, from DNA and from proteomics. A particularly valuable technique developed in the last decade is ZooMS, which involves extracting protein from tiny fragments of bone in order to identify species.13 This has enabled the identification of animal foods in ancient hominin sites14 and revealed hominins’ interactions with other large animals.15,16
These new techniques have also enabled us to revise our understanding of the environments in which hominins lived17 and to tease out the interactions between humans and their environments. There is growing evidence that our ancestors and relatives had negative impacts,18 contributing to the extinctions of many species, especially large “megafauna”.19Environmental shifts also impacted hominins and their evolution,20,21 even driving the evolution of new species22
The reconstruction of ancient pathogens relies on the ability to separate pathogen DNA from that of its human host.23 Combined with existing techniques, such as identifying traces of disease on skeletons and burial patterns,24 such studies help us understand the ecology and evolution of diseases. They also reveal how societies and technologies, such as the invention of farming, have impacted the spread of pathogens.25 In addition, they offer support for the contention that human health is inextricably connected with ecosystems, as suggested in the One Health model.26
The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:
This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.
The accumulating palaeoclimate data enables archaeologists to link ancient climatic trends and events with hominin evolution and historical events.28 Shifts in climate, and the associated modifications to ecosystems, have been associated with key moments in hominin evolution in Africa,29,30 including diversification and the formation of new species.31 Similarly, climatic impacts on distributions of hominin species have been identified.32,33,34,35 In some cases, palaeoclimate data suggests where hominins might have lived during periods where no actual archaeological data can be found.36
Data suggests that extreme climatic events may be linked to societal disruptions like wars and even collapses. Understanding how and why some societies endured while others folded may offer insight for our own climate-threatened future.37,38
There is an urgent need to gather palaeoclimate data as rapidly and widely as possible because contemporary climate change is erasing many key forms of evidence, such as the air bubbles trapped inside the ice of glaciers that are now melting.39
The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:
This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.
At smaller scales, advances in the use of isotopes, including non-traditional isotopes, are enabling archaeologists to trace the materials in artefacts like swords back to their mineral sources.45,46 These studies are revealing continent-spanning exchange networks long before empires or modern globalisation.47 Similarly, new dating techniques like uranium-thorium are proving invaluable for determining the age of artefacts such as rock art, providing some of the first hard evidence that other hominins, such as Neanderthals, made art.48 AI is also proving useful. It has helped to identify the chemical signatures of heating in ancient rocks, for example, providing evidence of the controlled use of fire a million years ago.49
New methods are being brought to bear on the interpretation and decoding of artefacts. Photogrammetry, which enables the three-dimensional scanning of artefacts, is increasingly used to reveal hidden details and patterns.50 AI can restore degraded ancient texts and identify their sources and ages.51 Similarly, ancient scrolls that are tightly wrapped and damaged can now be 3D-scanned and some of the text read.52
The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:
This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.
