Molecular data has enabled archaeologists to reconstruct flora and fauna, including pathogens, from ancient environments. This tells us about the ecosystems in which ancient peoples lived and how they affected them. Analyses of pathogens reveal the diseases and epidemics suffered by past societies, where diseases come from and how pathogens evolve. This is vital information for avoiding or preparing to face future pandemics.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

More pathogen genomes are sequenced

There is a rapid increase in numbers of microbial genomes sequenced, including palaeopathogens. Molecular evidence like DNA and palaeoproteomics becomes sufficiently precise to track mutations and selection pressures on past organisms.

10-yearhorizon

Past ecosystems are reconstructed through AI and environmental DNA

AI enables identification of the most common flora and fauna specimens, such as pollen and teeth. Environmental DNA from sediments and other sources is routinely used to reconstruct past ecosystems. Researchers reconstruct past food webs using a combination of isotope analyses, tooth wear and other tools.

25-yearhorizon

Drivers of past extinctions brought to light

High-resolution ecological models are applied to reconstructions of past ecosystems, enabling analyses of drivers of significant shifts such as extinctions. Researchers construct a global history of hominin diseases, from the origin of our species to the present.

Animals, plants and other organisms can be identified from their physical remains, from DNA and from proteomics. A particularly valuable technique developed in the last decade is ZooMS, which involves extracting protein from tiny fragments of bone in order to identify species.¹³ This has enabled the identification of animal foods in ancient hominin sites,¹⁴ and revealed hominins’ interactions with other large animals.¹⁵,¹⁶

These new techniques have also enabled us to revise our understanding of the environments in which hominins lived,¹⁷ and to tease out the interactions between humans and their environments. There is growing evidence that our ancestors and relatives had negative impacts,¹⁸ contributing to the extinctions of many species, especially “megafauna.”¹⁹ Environmental shifts also impacted hominins and their evolution,²⁰,²¹ even driving the evolution of new species.²²

The reconstruction of ancient pathogens relies on the ability to separate pathogen DNA from that of its human host.²³ Combined with existing techniques, such as identifying traces of disease on skeletons and burial patterns,²⁴ such studies help us understand the ecology and evolution of diseases. They also reveal how societies and technologies, such as the invention of farming, have impacted the spread of pathogens.²⁵ In addition, they offer support for the contention that human health is inextricably connected with ecosystems, as suggested in the One Health model.²⁶

Molecular-level analysis of ancient non-human remains - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.