There are many theoretical applications of synthetic biology to environmental problems, including tackling biodiversity loss, pollution and climate change. Much of this research is at a preliminary stage.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

AI accelerates discovery

Climate-resilient staple crops are developed. Improved catalytic abilities help achieve bioremediation of some organic pollutants, such as oil. Improved fixation of carbon and nitrogen from the air reduces the need for chemical fertilisers. AI enables rapid discovery of new organisms, pathways and molecules with important ecosystem functions. Carbon-negative manufacturing provides proof of principle.

10-yearhorizon

Engineered organisms achieve climate resilience

Wild species are engineered for resilience to climate change and other stressors, for example corals and their holobionts are engineered for heat tolerance. Microbes are engineered for biodegradation of multiple plastics and for upcycling of waste products. Reliable pest control is achieved using RNA interference. Biological synthesis of replacements for animal products like leather reduce the environmental impacts of livestock farming. Large-scale biosensors are deployed dynamically around the world.

25-yearhorizon

Biodiversity begins to be restored through engineering

Rational ecosystem engineering is used for biodiversity restoration. Engineered bacteria are able to achieve large-scale green-hydrogen production. Extinct species are generated, and synthetic biology is applied to geoengineering practices such as solar-radiation management and carbon capture.

There are multiple avenues for using synthetic biology to mitigate climate change. Algae and other cellular factories could be used to produce renewable fuels, offering a less land-intensive alternative to biofuels.⁵⁴ Notably, some early work has been done on engineering microbes to produce hydrogen.⁵⁵ This would be low- or zero-carbon method of manufacturing hydrogen.⁵⁶ Similarly, microbes are being engineered for enhanced carbon capture, potentially removing CO₂ from the air.⁵⁷

The flow of pollutants into the environment may be reduced through the use of synthetic biology. For instance, chemical pesticides may be partially replaced by biotechnologies such as RNA interference for pest control, or by engineering the pests themselves — using gene drives, for example.⁵⁸ Where pollutants are already present, engineered microbes may speed up their degradation.⁵⁹

Endangered species and ecosystems may be made more robust through synthetic biology.⁶⁰ Genome editing may be used to monitor threatened species or to identify the species making up harmful algal blooms.⁶¹ More radically, genome editors could enhance adaptive traits, for instance by making coral holobionts more tolerant of higher temperatures to protect coral reefs from climate change.⁶² Any such endeavours would need a reliable understanding of the ecosystems involved: in particular, it is important to gain a better understanding of microbial ecosystems, which are also threatened but are under-studied.⁶³

Energy, climate and conservation - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.