Use the future to build the present
Predictive Peacekeeping
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1Quantum Revolution& Advanced AI2HumanAugmentation3Eco-Regeneration& Geo-Engineering4Science& Diplomacy1.11.21.31.42.12.22.32.43.13.23.33.43.54.14.24.34.44.5HIGHEST ANTICIPATIONPOTENTIALAdvancedArtificial IntelligenceQuantumTechnologiesBrain-inspiredComputingBiologicalComputingCognitiveEnhancementHuman Applications of Genetic EngineeringRadical HealthExtensionConsciousnessAugmentation DecarbonisationWorldSimulationFuture FoodSystemsSpaceResourcesOceanStewardshipComplex Systems forSocial EnhancementScience-basedDiplomacyInnovationsin EducationSustainableEconomicsCollaborativeScience Diplomacy
1Quantum Revolution& Advanced AI2HumanAugmentation3Eco-Regeneration& Geo-Engineering4Science& Diplomacy1.11.21.31.42.12.22.32.43.13.23.33.43.54.14.24.34.44.5HIGHEST ANTICIPATIONPOTENTIALAdvancedArtificial IntelligenceQuantumTechnologiesBrain-inspiredComputingBiologicalComputingCognitiveEnhancementHuman Applications of Genetic EngineeringRadical HealthExtensionConsciousnessAugmentation DecarbonisationWorldSimulationFuture FoodSystemsSpaceResourcesOceanStewardshipComplex Systems forSocial EnhancementScience-basedDiplomacyInnovationsin EducationSustainableEconomicsCollaborativeScience Diplomacy

Sub-Field:

4.2.3Predictive Peacekeeping

Predictive Peacekeeping uses technologies related to machine learning, big data and computational modelling to better understand conflict, to predict where it is likely to occur and to help develop mitigation, preventative and rebuilding strategies.9 For example, by studying the patterns of social, cultural and economic data in the run up to past conflicts, artificial intelligence applications may be able to predict the likelihood of conflict arising from current and future scenarios.10

The field has been bolstered by a number of successes. For example, the number of news articles about conflict in the Middle East have been shown to be predictive of imminent conflict. And increases in food prices above a threshold level are correlated with civil unrest in many parts of the world.11

However, the complexities of human conflict have a strong dependence on the behaviour of unpredictable actors. Natural disasters, such as drought, famine, earthquakes and so on, also play a crucial but inherently unpredictable role. These factors place important limits on the spatial and temporal accuracy of predictive peacekeeping.

Nevertheless, there are growing efforts to improve the quality of data that informs these models to exploit this data more effectively and to forecast a wide range of possible futures from one-off events, be they military coups or civil wars.12 Models like this will help to keep the world safer and help policymakers explore potential outcomes before acting.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Computer models map potential outcomes

Advanced models of areas of conflict allow stakeholders to map out and discuss potential futures before deciding on a course of action.

10-yearhorizon

Mass-data gathering creates peacekeeping tools but raises issues of privacy and exclusion

Researchers begin to use a wider range of data, such as anonymised mobile phone data, to study the potential for conflict. They lobby for accountability for social networking companies, who can now explicitly see when activity on their sites is fuelling unrest. The real-time nature of some data gathering exercises raises issues of privacy, and exclusion of those without a digital voice, that need to be addressed.

25-yearhorizon

Climate change and conflict increases use of peace modelling

As pressures from climate change increase and civil unrest becomes common in some parts of the world, the use of predictive peacekeeping models becomes a default response.

Predictive Peacekeeping - Anticipation Scores

How the experts see this field in terms of the expected time to maturity, transformational effect across science and industries, current state of awareness among stakeholders and its possible impact on people, society and the planet. See methodology for more information.

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