4.3.2 . Modelling and simulation
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4.3.2 . Modelling and simulation
Use the future to build the present
Modelling and simulation
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Stakeholder Type
1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology
1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology

Sub-Field:

4.3.2 Modelling and simulation

    Human societies are embedded in complex “social-ecological systems” (SESs) that are composed of interconnected physical, biological, and socio-economic processes, cycles and networks. Understanding these systems, and their interconnection, is vital to tackling the grand challenges and “wicked problems” facing society in the 21st century, such as those related to climate change, biodiversity, human demographics and economic disruption.

    These challenges are now becoming tractable thanks to expansion of our ability to collect and analyse data about SESs through satellite imagery,12 in situ networks of ecosystem1314 and urban15 sensors, and automated aggregation of economic and social data.16 This in turn makes it possible to build computer models that simulate processes taking place in a wide variety of systems, and at a wide variety of scales.

    Initially, these models were confined to physical processes, with climate modelling being by far the best-known example,17 but as our data-gathering capabilities have expanded, we have now started to model ecosystems18 and various dimensions of societies such as urban planning19 and health20 as well. Research is underway into the use of these models as decision-support tools for policy makers.21

    Technology vendors have put forward the idea of integrated “digital twins” that spans physical, biological, social and economic dimensions from local to global scales, and particularly integrated models of cities. However, the case for these has yet to be proven, especially with regards to less wealthy communities, where the focus is more on using digital tools at more granular levels, such as buildings information management,22 and on immersive technologies that allow decision-makers to better evaluate the results of urban or environmental interventions.23

    Future Horizons:

    ×××

    5-yearhorizon

    Modelling techniques become widely used

    Greater use is made of digital modelling techniques to assess individual development and infrastructure projects, as well as greater integration with decision-making processes. Research continues into how immersive models can best allow stakeholders to more intuitively yet rigorously understand the context for decision-making, and low-cost, low-risk simulation of different solutions to development and environmental challenges.

    10-yearhorizon

    Computational power assists high-resolution modelling

    High-resolution models for physical processes, initially demonstrated for select locations, become both more accurate and more widely available, thanks to increases in computational power and well-categorised and contextualised data. Integrated models of the built environment are created for some urban environments and coupled social-ecological avatars are created for especially tractable and well-studied locales, such as oceanic islands.

    25-yearhorizon

    Local and regional become interconnected

    Local digital twins and avatars that allow predictive management and decision-making at city and island scales join up with regional and global avatars, such as physical climate models that increasingly include biological and social feedbacks. They become interconnected at nested scales, creating a global “intelligent fabric” that can be utilised in politics and diplomacy.

    Modelling and simulation - Anticipation Scores

    How the experts see this field in terms of the expected time to maturity, transformational effect across science and industries, current state of awareness among stakeholders and its possible impact on people, society and the planet. See methodology for more information.