Because the future is uncertain, it often holds multiple possible outcomes, presenting very different opportunities and risks. These can be assessed using approaches known collectively as foresight (or futures) methods, which are predominantly qualitative, typically focusing on developing images and narratives of alternative futures rather than numerical predictions. The most widely accepted of these techniques is scenario analysis, which has been used in corporate settings since the 1970s.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Generation and communication of scenarios improves

Research continues into ways to more effectively generate scenarios and communicate their implications and consequences, making greater use of insights from cognitive neuroscience and tools from interaction design.

10-yearhorizon

ML-generated scenarios bring surprises

Machine learning and synthetic data are routinely used in governance contexts to create scenarios that challenge the expectations of human participants while also being grounded in real-world evidence. Foresight work remains a largely exploratory exercise.

25-yearhorizon

On-demand scenario creation becomes available

Scenarios are brought to life “on demand” through the use of generative gaming engines and mixed reality, allowing participants to experience different outcomes more intuitively. Foresight work is intended to allow decision-makers to better appreciate the potential consequences of their work.

Foresight exercises typically task a group with imagining how a situation will evolve, often using fictional prompts and props as well as real data, knowledge and expertise. This disrupts their conventional thinking, allowing them to anticipate possible outcomes that include novel and extreme possibilities. Synthetic data and machine learning are also now being used to support the creation of unorthodox narratives.²² ²³

Such techniques may help to address the current tendency of foresight work to identify positive or preferred futures. If we are to truly anticipate what the future may hold, we must also consider uncertain futures, unlikely futures and undesirable futures. This includes widely known concepts like “black swans” and “existential risks”, but further work needs to be done to map and understand the space of these “unfutures”.²⁴

One strand of development is understanding how unknown and disruptive factors can be envisaged using scenarios or other futures methods and then integrated into the parameters or structure of a quantitative model. A second is an expansion of the application space, to address such issues as identity or the interests of transnational communities.

Scenarios and foresight - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.