Economics
Comment
Stakeholder Type

Economics

5.2

Emerging Topic

Economics

Anticipation Committee Chair

It is apparent from the challenges facing humanity in the 21st century that externalities need to be better incorporated into the economic decisions of firms, households and governments. Global warming continues to heat the planet, with atmospheric temperatures likely to soon break the 1.5˚C-of-warming threshold that climate agreements had pledged to avoid. Media coverage of this imminent milestone is focusing attention on what more can be done. For this reason, all actors should be more alert to the negative consequences that their decisions have for the well-being of others — near or far — as well as for future generations and for the planet. The market cannot be relied upon to drive positive change towards sustainability, inclusiveness and resilience. Therefore, more government intervention is needed. Societies need to agree on the negative externalities created (for example by too much automation, by excessive emissions or pollution), quantify them and shape economic choices through direct subsidies and incentives.

Research into these issues is already uncovering many policy solutions that could lead to resilient, inclusive, sustainable societies. There is the circular economy, for instance, where the full life-cycle cost of goods and materials is factored into prices, and where the by-products and waste from one process become the feedstocks for others.1 Sustainable economic policies must also deal with the externalities of climate change, which lead to forced migration, with all kinds of consequences on the societies at the journey's origin and the destination, and problems for agriculture through altered environmental conditions. Our societies also have to solve issues of globalisation, automation and employment before they cause significant economic changes that can lead to social unrest. Many of the required economic models and measures have been invented but are yet to be implemented.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Our understanding of how economic policy and strategies will need to evolve in the 21st century will play a significant role in determining the trajectory of human experience. A key task is Managing climate externalities. The consequences of traditional economic models include potentially catastrophic global temperature rises, and it is important that these be mitigated as far as is possible. Also arising from technological progress is the issue of Automation and work: economists and policy-makers are now faced with difficult decisions regarding how far technologies such as AI should be allowed to shape the workplace. Sustainable economics will benefit from Bootstrapping circular economies, which will reduce resource consumption. There is optimism that these measures can all contribute to an era of Sustainable global trade, where the green economy and resilient supply chains offer a chance to develop an economics that contributes to establishing equitable global prosperity while still affirming and improving the lot of individuals, societies and ecosystems.

Emerging Topic:

Anticipation Potential

Economics

Sub-Fields:

Managing climate externalities
Automation and work
Bootstrapping circular economies
Sustainable global trade
Making improvements to our educational systems is not a novel idea, but major innovation appears to be imminent. Respondents expect breakthroughs in all of the areas investigated within the next 5-15 years, which suggests the window for anticipation is already narrowing. The possible outliers are education sensing and the neuroscientific aspects of learning, which are expected to reach maturity last and currently have relatively low awareness. Given the potential privacy issues raised by widespread surveillance in the classroom, education sensing is likely to require more work than the other topics to map out the potential ramifications and find solutions to any problems uncovered.

Anticipatory Impact:

Three fundamental questions guide GESDA’s mission and drive its work: Who are we, as humans? How can we all live together? How can we ensure the well-being of humankind and the sustainable future of our planet? We asked researchers from the field to anticipate what impact future breakthroughs could have on each of these dimensions. This wheel summarises their opinions when considering each of these questions, with a higher score indicating high anticipated impact, and vice versa.

  • Anticipated impact on who we are as humans
  • Anticipated impact on how we will all live together
  • Anticipated impact on the well-being of humankind and sustainable future of our planet