Our traditional economic models have already created substantial challenges. Atmospheric levels of CO₂ have been rising steadily since the industrial revolution, leading to global temperature rises that threaten the habitability of parts of Earth. The average level of warming has now reached 1.2˚C and may reach 1.5˚C by 2027. For some parts of the Earth, that will be catastrophic, leading to the collapse of farming and significant food and water shortages. The prospect of mass migration away from these regions is becoming ever more real. To better understand, predict and plan for these mass movements will require urgent international attention.² ³

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

An era of progress

Media coverage and public pressure forces governments to accelerate efforts to get to zero emissions before 2050. A growing awareness and experience of the negative consequences of climate change lead to implementation of a global CO₂ tax. Circular-economy strategies continue to be implemented on key issues such as plastics and waste, if only at a local level.

10-yearhorizon

Farming requires intervention

Some parts of Africa become too hot and too dry to support traditional crops, while efforts to commercialise heat-resistant crops have stalled over intellectual-property rights and the limited potential for recouping costs. Nevertheless, the success of some genetically modified crops in extreme conditions provides momentum for a global research effort to develop other heat resistant crops. After the success of COVID-19 vaccine development, this work is funded by governments rather than by commercial profit.

25-yearhorizon

Crisis is avoided through forward thinking

The global effort to develop heat resistant crops largely prevents mass starvation, migration and civil unrest in countries whose traditional crops have failed due to climate change. The retraining of workers in these economies, funded through global cooperation, means that most families can afford imported food. Despite the increased mortality due to high temperatures, fears of mass migration recede. We are heading towards living within sustainable limits and are on track towards zero carbon emissions in 2050, meeting the Paris Agreement.

Mitigation policies could help, such as the development and commercialisation of heat-resistant crops and of efficient water-management and purification systems based on technologies such as desalination. However, significant adaptation will also be necessary.⁴ Some economies will need to prepare for a future in which farming is no longer possible. When that happens, people will need alternative forms of work to pay for imported food. That will mean reskilling the workforce. Certain kinds of economic policies can avert severe climate change by introducing measures such as carbon pricing. There is also increasing academic study of how humans can actively intervene, for example by injecting aerosols into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight. Science diplomacy will need to play a crucial role as this option becomes more broadly discussed.

Managing climate externalities - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.