5.3.3. Bootstrapping Circular Economies
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5.3.3. Bootstrapping Circular Economies
Use the future to build the present
Bootstrapping Circular Economies
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1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology
1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology

Sub-Field:

5.3.3Bootstrapping Circular Economies

    A circular economy overcomes the “take, make, waste” of traditional linear economies by attaching costs to the creation of waste and pollution and to the over-exploitation of resources1. Circular policies also create financial incentives to make the waste from one process the feedstock for another. The goal is to create giant closed loops that recycle and reuse Earth’s resources for as long as possible.10

    There are many challenges here. Renewable energy is an important part of the solution because it eliminates generation of carbon dioxide waste from fossil fuels. Properly pricing natural resources will require substantial interventions as well as regulation to direct the use of resources on a global scale.11 However, the war in Ukraine has significantly increased investment in renewable energy providing an unexpected boost for efforts to create the foundations for circular processes.

    At the same time, trials of circular processes are accelerating. Renault is currently fitting out Europe’s first dedicated circular economy factory for vehicles,12 Philips has begun a project to remanufacture used medical machinery so it can be resold as new,13 with the relevant performance and product guarantees and Dow has begun building chemical plants for turning used plastic into ethylene, which can be used to make virgin plastic again.14

    Future Horizons:

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    5-yearhorizon

    Circularity efforts gain momentum on local scales

    City programmes to increase circularity gain powerful grass roots followings. The right-to-repair movement forces legislation that makes most products repairable, creating a new cottage industry focused in DIY repair. Artificial intelligence helps to identify and react to eventualities that might cause crises or unsustainable practices in the global supply chain.

    10-yearhorizon

    The first entirely closed-loop economic processes appear

    International agreement on material pricing creates the financial incentives that make complete circular economies more viable. The first of these begin to bear fruit.

    25-yearhorizon

    Circular economies become more widespread

    Truly circular economies appear in some industries on national and regional scales. However, pricing issues still incentivise many linear practices and significant global regulation is needed to bootstrap more circularity.

    Bootstrapping Circular Economies - Anticipation Scores

    How the experts see this field in terms of the expected time to maturity, transformational effect across science and industries, current state of awareness among stakeholders and its possible impact on people, society and the planet. See methodology for more information.

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