Researchers seeking to understand climate change have thus been required to incorporate ever more components of the Earth system into their models. By including explicit models of the cryosphere, for example, researchers can better predict the extent and speed of sea level rise. In addition, the models must incorporate the effects of feedback loops, where small changes in one component can trigger effects in others, that then in turn alter the state of the first component, amplifying or diminishing the original change. The Earth system paradigm has also led to the identification of “tipping elements”. These are components of the Earth system that can undergo effectively irreversible change given a sufficiently strong stimulus.
Earth system models that can handle these interactions are necessarily extremely complex. One key enabler is the development of ever more powerful supercomputers. However, a crucial task is to ground them in observations of real-world systems, and in process-oriented studies that capture the mechanisms of the Earth system. This requires a significant increase in monitoring capacity, using both terrestrial and space-based sensors. Strategic improvements in Earth remote sensing would bolster our understanding of the Earth system and ability to forecast societally-relevant changes.
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In January 2023, an international collaboration published Teleconnections among tipping elements in the Earth system, delving deep into the Earth's interconnected ecological zones. By identifying strong linkages between pivotal components like the Amazon Rainforest Area and the Tibetan Plateau, the study emphasises the potential domino effect of environmental disturbances, accentuating the urgency of decoding these ties to anticipate and navigate future climate alterations. In a similar vein, a group of researchers published Many risky feedback loops amplify the need for climate action in February, an important attempt to highlight feedback loops that are not fully accounted for in climate models. Predicting climatic tipping points, also published in February by a collaboration between German and Indian researchers, unravels alarming climatic thresholds by deploying an innovative model. The revelations underscore the impending peril of unchecked greenhouse emissions and the pressing need for timely interventions.
