3.2.3. Interactions between earth systems
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3.2.3. Interactions between earth systems
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Interactions between earth systems
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1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology
1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology

Sub-Field:

3.2.3Interactions between earth systems

    The various Earth Systems cannot be fully understood in isolation. For example, humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions are heating up Earth’s climate, and this is having knock-on effects for the biosphere, the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, and wildfires. Furthermore, these systems then feed back into the climate: plants and microbes, for example, exchange gases with the atmosphere.1112 Therefore, climate change is inextricably bound up with other environmental issues such as biodiversity loss and pollution. Understanding these linkages is essential: for example, improved spatial and temporal understanding of regions likely to become uninhabitable has enabled prediction of forced migrations.13

    This means that an essential part of Earth Systems modelling involves exploring the interplay across different systems, and developing models that take all of the systems into account. This requires integrating data from a wide variety of systems — and from a variety of sources, such as field measurements and remote sensing technologies.

    One of the most high-profile attempts to quantify whole-Earth processes is the concept of “planetary boundaries”. This aims to identify a set of Earth systems, each of which is essential to human survival and wellbeing. An initial assessment in 2009 identified nine, ranging from biosphere integrity and fresh-water use to land system change.14 It further concluded that humanity had already pushed past three of the boundaries, taking our species outside its “safe operating space”.15> However, there are large uncertainties around the size and rate of change we are causing, whether the current list of boundaries should be amended,16 and how the different boundaries interact. The “boundaries” framing has also been questioned: in the absence of tipping elements, Earth systems degrade gradually so hard limits are difficult or impossible to specify.

    Future Horizons:

    ×××

    5-yearhorizon

    Planetary boundaries are better understood

    Researchers gain a clearer understanding of the interdependence between planetary boundaries, and significantly improve estimates of the safe limits for pollution.

    10-yearhorizon

    An array of sensing technologies feed into modelling of system exchanges

    Improvements in LIDAR, satellite-based sensing and infra-red spectroscopy provide more reliable data on gas exchanges between biosphere and atmosphere, which improves Earth Systems modelling.

    25-yearhorizon

    Computing advances improve climate interventions

    Exascale computing allows data from all Earth Systems (including their interactions) to be integrated into the best sets of models at high resolution. This enables ensemble-based predictions and deeper, more reliable understanding of where interventions will have the greatest impact on climate change.

    Interactions between earth systems - Anticipation Scores

    How the experts see this field in terms of the expected time to maturity, transformational effect across science and industries, current state of awareness among stakeholders and its possible impact on people, society and the planet. See methodology for more information.

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