Decarbonisation
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Decarbonisation
Use the future to build the present
Decarbonisation
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5.5SyntheticBiology5.4Science ofthe Originsof Life5.3FutureEconomics5.2Future ofEducation5.1ComplexSystemsScience4.4Democracy-affirming Technologies4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advances inScience Diplomacy4.3Digital Technologiesand Conflict3.7InfectiousDiseases3.6Solar RadiationModification3.5OceanStewardship3.4SpaceResources3.3Future FoodSystems3.2WorldSimulation3.1Decarbonisation2.6FutureTherapeutics2.5Organoids2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.3RadicalHealthExtension2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.1CognitiveEnhancement1.6CollectiveIntelligence1.5AugmentedReality1.4BiologicalComputing1.3Brain-inspiredComputing1.2QuantumTechnologies1.1AdvancedAIHIGHEST ANTICIPATIONPOTENTIAL
5.5SyntheticBiology5.4Science ofthe Originsof Life5.3FutureEconomics5.2Future ofEducation5.1ComplexSystemsScience4.4Democracy-affirming Technologies4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advances inScience Diplomacy4.3Digital Technologiesand Conflict3.7InfectiousDiseases3.6Solar RadiationModification3.5OceanStewardship3.4SpaceResources3.3Future FoodSystems3.2WorldSimulation3.1Decarbonisation2.6FutureTherapeutics2.5Organoids2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.3RadicalHealthExtension2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.1CognitiveEnhancement1.6CollectiveIntelligence1.5AugmentedReality1.4BiologicalComputing1.3Brain-inspiredComputing1.2QuantumTechnologies1.1AdvancedAIHIGHEST ANTICIPATIONPOTENTIAL

Emerging Topic:

3.1Decarbonisation

    Associated Sub-Fields

    The reports of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) make clear that climate change is primarily driven by increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, a direct result of anthropogenic activity, which is primarily related to the combustion of fossil fuels for energy production. The consequences of this activity on our habitable environment are serious, and include desertification, melting glaciers, ocean acidification, rising sea levels and water shortages. Thus, implementing a global strategy to curb CO2 levels is an urgent task.

    Show advancements in the past year

    While a global transition to renewable, clean energy sources seems like an obvious solution, energy transitions are historically slow and hence the continued use of fossil fuels is expected for many years to come. Thus, the concurrent advancement of many other technologies is required. Such technologies are related to capturing CO2 from large point sources such as power plants, improving energy efficiency (for instance within industry and the building sectors), producing synthetic fuels from waste products such as CO2 and biomass, and CO2 storage, both underground and in the form of useful, value added products such as concrete. However, it must be emphasised, that all of these aforementioned approaches can only help cut existing CO2 emissions. Thus, a major part of the IPCC solution is to directly remove CO2 from the atmosphere using a range of “negative emissions technologies” (NETs), which can be incentivised through robust CO2 pricing. Still, socio-technological advances in NETs are also required to permit humanity to begin decarbonising the atmosphere and thus significantly reduce the projected impact of climate change. It is important to act now — before Earth’s climate system reaches a tipping point beyond which there is no possibility of controlling the effects of climate change.

    The Paris Agreement established a global framework meant to limit global warming to “well below 2 degrees Celsius”, with the ultimate goal of not exceeding a 1.5 °C increase. Despite this, studies indicate that if humanity continues emitting carbon at the current rate, there will likely be enough CO2 in the atmosphere to rapidly break through the lower 1.5°C target within the next decade.1 Thus, it is clear that urgent decarbonisation will require co-ordinated action at every scale as well as a concerted, unified effort across many disciplines, including policy, economics, industry, science, engineering, and technology. Understanding the challenges and uncertainties involved and proposing a path forward that ensures global access to renewable energy and participation in NETs through the right policies and economic incentives, is critical.2 Possible pathways to decarbonisation solutions are presented further down in the report.

    In this section, we present potential technological breakthroughs related to negative emission technologies, the clean energy transition, the development and deployment of new advanced materials, and energy storage systems as key contributors to decarbonisation.

    Selection of GESDA Best Reads and further key reports

    Among many publications in the aforementioned areas, four documents from 2019 provide a useful overview. Luderer et al’s review the likely co-benefits of decarbonisation3; the International Renewable Energy Agency have looked at innovations in energy storage4 and the future of solar photovoltaic systems.5 Finally, there is the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine’s “Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration: A Research Agenda”.6

    Emerging Topic:

    Anticipation Potential

    Decarbonisation

    Sub-Fields:

    Negative Emission Technologies
    Energy Transition
    Advanced Materials
    Energy Storage
    The drive to reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has been a global priority for a number of decades. Moving away from polluting fossil fuels has been a major focus of this effort, which is why energy transition was judged to have low anticipatory need. Despite being rated very highly for its transformational impact, the field has already received plenty of attention and is expected to reach maturity over relatively short timescales. In contrast, large-scale deployment of negative emission technologies is almost two decades away and has received less attention so far, suggesting a greater need for foresight in this area.

    GESDA Best Reads and Key Resources

    Article

    Green Hydrogen The next transformational driver of the Utilities industry

    Published:

    8th Aug 2021
    In our Carbonomics report we analysed the major role of clean hydrogen in the transition towards Net Zero. Here we focus on Green hydrogen (“e-Hydrogen”), which is produced when renewable energy powers the electrolysis of water. Green hydrogen looks poised to become a once-in-a-generation opportunity: we estimate it could give rise to a €10 trn addressable market globally by 2050 for the Utilities industry alone. e-Hydrogen could become pivotal to the Utilities (and Energy) industry, with the potential by 2050 to: (i) turn into the largest electricity customer, and double power demand in Europe; (ii) double our already top-of-the-street 2050 renewables capex EU Green Deal Bull Case estimates (tripling annual wind/solar additions); (iii) imply a profound reconfiguration of the gas grid; (iv) solve the issue of seasonal power storage; and (v) provide a second life to conventional thermal power producers thanks to the conversion of gas plants into hydrogen turbines.

    Article

    Net Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector

    Published:

    8th Aug 2021
    Despite the current gap between rhetoric and reality on emissions, our Roadmap shows that there are still pathways to reach net zero by 2050. The one on which we focus is – in our analysis – the most technically feasible, cost‐effective and socially acceptable. Even so, that pathway remains narrow and extremely challenging, requiring all stakeholders – governments, businesses, investors and citizens – to take action this year and every year after so that the goal does not slip out of reach. This report sets out clear milestones – more than 400 in total, spanning all sectors and technologies – for what needs to happen, and when, to transform the global economy from one dominated by fossil fuels into one powered predominantly by renewable energy like solar and wind. Our pathway requires vast amounts of investment, innovation, skilful policy design and implementation, technology deployment, infrastructure building, international co‐operation and efforts across many other areas.