3.1.3. Hard-to-abate emissions
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3.1.3. Hard-to-abate emissions
Use the future to build the present
Hard-to-abate emissions
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1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology
1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology

Sub-Field:

3.1.3Hard-to-abate emissions

    Some sectors of the economy are extremely difficult to decarbonise. A significant fraction of our carbon emissions comes from hard-to-abate sources such as agriculture, forestry and other land use. Part of the solution will be on the demand side: switching to more sustainable diets that feature less red meat will cut emissions, partly by reducing tropical deforestation. Reducing food waste will help, as will progress in developing cultivated meat. There are also improvements to be made on farms, particularly in the management of soils, which are a major source of carbon emissions. Innovations in methane-inhibiting feedstocks, selective cattle breeding for low methane production22 and anaerobic manure processing23 are also set to help.

    It is also possible to improve industrial processes to reduce overall emissions. In steel manufacture, carbon is typically used to chemically transform iron ore into iron, but newer “direct reduction” processes use hydrogen instead.24 There is also the potential to use “oxyfuel” — air with most of the nitrogen removed — in order to create emissions that are less dilute and thus easier to capture. This is an attractive option for cement production, a significant source of carbon emissions.25

    Aviation remains an unsolved challenge, because powered flight requires fuels with a high energy-to-mass ratio, and batteries cannot yet match that of kerosene. Solar-powered planes cannot yet carry large numbers of passengers. Some companies are experimenting with replacing fractions of their jet fuel with biofuels or chemically-engineered synthetic fuels. However, these initiatives are not yet market-ready.

    Future Horizons:

    ×××

    5-yearhorizon

    Innovation slows the growth of emissions

    An appetite for climate change mitigation in agriculture creates a rapid cycle of innovation that slows the growth of emissions. Government programmes begin to support decarbonisation of heavy industry.

    10-yearhorizon

    Bioprocessing cuts food waste emissions

    Innovations in bioprocessing mean that global emissions from food waste are half those of 2023. Cultivated meat protein becomes widely available, but cannot satisfy the rising global demand for meat.

    25-yearhorizon

    Industrial processes achieve significant carbon emission reduction

    Steel and cement manufacture are close to carbon neutral, thanks to progress in chemical research that generates cleaner industrial processes. 25 per cent of people adopt vegetarian diets.26 Low- or zero-carbon aviation fuels become available.27

    Hard-to-abate emissions - Anticipation Scores

    How the experts see this field in terms of the expected time to maturity, transformational effect across science and industries, current state of awareness among stakeholders and its possible impact on people, society and the planet. See methodology for more information.

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    3.1.4Energy Demand