A significant fraction of our carbon emissions comes from hard-to-abate sources such as aviation, industry, agriculture and forestry. Part of the solution will be on the demand side:16 diets that feature less red meat will cut emissions, as will reducing food waste and better cultivated meat. There are also improvements to be made on farms, for instance in soil management, selective cattle breeding for low methane production17 and anaerobic manure processing.18

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Innovation slows the growth of emissions

An appetite for climate change mitigation in agriculture creates a rapid cycle of innovation that slows the growth of emissions. Government programmes begin to support decarbonisation of heavy industry.

10-yearhorizon

Bioprocessing cuts food waste emissions

Innovations in bioprocessing mean that global emissions from food waste are half those of 2023. Cultivated meat protein becomes widely available, but cannot satisfy the rising global demand for meat.

25-yearhorizon

Industrial processes achieve significant carbon emission reduction

Steel and cement manufacture are close to carbon neutral, thanks to progress in chemical research that generates cleaner industrial processes. 25 per cent of people adopt vegetarian diets. Low- or zero-carbon aviation fuels become available.

In steel manufacture, carbon is typically used to transform iron ore into iron, but newer “direct reduction” processes use hydrogen.19 There is potential to use “oxyfuel” — air with most of the nitrogen removed —to create emissions that are easier to capture. This may help cut emissions from cement production.20

Research on sustainable aviation fuels is progressing slowly because powered flight requires fuels with a high energy-to-mass ratio — batteries can certainly not yet match kerosene. Solar-powered planes remain small. Some companies are experimenting with replacing fractions of their jet fuel with biofuels or chemically-engineered synthetic fuels, but these initiatives are not market-ready.21

Hard-to-abate emissions - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.