Chemists have long understood how to turn carbon dioxide into fuel, via hydrogenation using the Sabatier process to make methane, for example.⁵ The Fischer-Tropsch process, meanwhile, can convert carbon monoxide and hydrogen into liquid hydrocarbons.⁶ However, these processes are inefficient, energy-intensive and expensive ways of producing fuels when starting from sustainable ingredients rather than fossil fuels.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Electrochemistry unearths novel materials and processes

A continued focus on better understanding the electrochemistry in making synthetic fuels leads to a new generation of more efficient and more stable materials and processes.

10-yearhorizon

Direct air capture investment soars

As alternative fuels are adopted by larger markets, the demand for sustainably sourced carbon dioxide soars, triggering greater investment in direct air capture technology.

25-yearhorizon

Sustainable aviation fuel policy generates demand for synthetics

The European Union mandates that 70 per cent of aviation fuel must be sustainable by 2050, with at least half of that being synthetic fuel. This drives research innovations, seeding new breakthroughs.

Much research is currently devoted to developing alternative sustainable fuels and chemicals, improving understanding of the reaction mechanisms and developing better catalysts that can lower energy costs, increase yields and reduce the need for scarce or controversial materials like cobalt and ruthenium. More efficient reactions will improve the viability of “power-to-X” technologies that convert renewable energy into fuels like methane or other hydrocarbons as a form of energy storage, although life-cycle assessment protocols will be required to ensure that synthetic fuels really do have net climate benefits.

Beyond the challenge of developing better materials and processes is the problem of finding scalable, renewable sources of carbon dioxide and hydrogen to act as feedstocks, should these fuels be produced on a vast scale. Biogenic sources of carbon are generally limited and, in some cases, may compete with crops and agriculture. Other sources, like direct air capture (DAC), raise massive engineering challenges. Methane pyrolysis and ammonia cracking are looking like promising routes to producing hydrogen. There remains the problem of integrating these new fuels into a processing, refining and distribution system designed for fossil fuels.

In the meantime, the high cost of synthetic fuels raises the question of where to use them, with aviation and international shipping being likely candidates.⁷ Indeed, the costs of synthetic fuels are so high that it is currently cheaper to continue burning fossil fuels and then remove the carbon dioxide this produces from the atmosphere with DAC.⁸ This is unlikely to change soon but could bootstrap DAC technology to the point where it can capture carbon-dioxide feedstocks on a scale suitable for manufacturing synthetic fuels at a more reasonable price.⁹

Alternative sustainable fuels and chemicals - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.