Reducing demand for energy can have a significant effect on carbon emissions. There is huge scope for demand reduction: for example, the UK could cut its energy demand by more than half by 2050.²² The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that intensive efforts towards increased energy efficiency could cause global energy demand to fall by 8 per cent by 2050, even if the economy more than doubled in size and the population grew by 2 billion.²³

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Electric cars begin to dominate the new car market

Electric cars become cheaper than petrol in most developed countries and innovations in battery technology make them more practical to use. Developments in grid technology enables stored energy in electric car batteries to be sold into national electricity grids when demand is high.

10-yearhorizon

Building standards assist decarbonisation goals

Reforms to building standards and other regulations promote lower energy demand and renewable installation. World steel demand peaks, creating a significant reduction in industrial energy use.

25-yearhorizon

Global energy demand has peaked

Heat-,pump innovations, combined with smart meters and building regulations, mean that new buildings in most developed countries use minimal energy and are net suppliers of energy. Massive expansion of high-speed rail reduces demand for cars and aviation. Global energy demand is 8 per cent smaller than today but serving an economy twice the size. Electric cars outsell petrol cars globally. New low-temperature industrial processes reduce the energy demand of heavy industries.

Operation of buildings, which consumes 30 per cent of the energy generated globally, is ripe for innovation.²⁴ For example, a large fraction of that energy is used for temperature control. Improved construction and design, combined with the use of technologies such as ground-source heat pumps, can virtually eliminate this need.

There is also great scope to reduce energy demand through greater use of public transport and improvements to industrial processes.²⁵ New designs of cars and skyscrapers are reducing the amount of steel and concrete needed, for instance. Improvements to recycling systems, and the gradual transition to a circular economy, also reduce the need for manufacture of new materials.²⁶

Energy demand - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.