The major emissions sources are:
- Energy supply: 34%
- Industry: 24%
- Agriculture, forestry and other land use: 22%
- Transport: 15%
- Buildings: 6%
In 2022, levels of CO2 in the atmosphere reached 417 parts per million, about 50 per cent higher than pre-industrial levels.2 Thanks to this atmospheric carbon, Earth has already warmed 1.1°C compared to the late 19th century.3 There is now a 66 per cent chance that the annual global temperature will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year between 2023 and 2027.4 To give a 50 per cent chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, we can emit no more than 380 GtCO2: if we continue emitting at 2022 rates, we will use up this carbon budget in nine years.5
In the 2015 Paris Agreement,6 governments agreed to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” To limit warming to 1.5°C or 2°C, global emissions must peak by 2025 and fall rapidly. To achieve 1.5°C, net global emissions must fall 43 per cent from 2019 levels by 2030 and 84 per cent by 2050.
Existing policies are not sufficient to achieve this and are likely to lead to 2.8°C of heating by the end of the century.7 However, the national pledges made at COP26 in Glasgow would, if fully implemented, limit warming to less than 2°C (but not to 1.5°C).8 Current policies and pledges represent a significant advance on the position 10 or 20 years ago: it may be that we will soon hit tipping points where first pledges, and then policies, are sufficient to achieve the 2°C target. A number of science and technology-based strategies exist that will assist in achieving this goal.
SELECTION OF GESDA BEST READS AND KEY REPORTS:
In March, an international collaboration published Why residual emissions matter right now. This critically examines residual emissions in strategies submitted to the UNFCCC. The research calls for consistency and clarity, pointing out potential pitfalls in forecasting and fossil fuel consumption's future. Application of energy storage in integrated energy systems — a solution to fluctuation and uncertainty of renewable energy, published in August 2022 by Chinese researchers, navigates the realm of energy storage. Through a comprehensive review, it explores the role of various storage technologies in optimising the utilisation of renewable energy. In September 2022, a collaboration between US, China, and UK researchers published Breaking the hard-to-abate bottleneck in China’s path to carbon neutrality with clean hydrogen. This study accentuates the revolutionary role of clean hydrogen in addressing persistent carbon emission challenges, projecting its substantial potential in China's heavy industries and transportation sector by 2060, marking a promising stride towards achieving carbon neutrality in traditionally difficult sectors.
