3.6.3. Terrestrial solar radiation modification
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3.6.3. Terrestrial solar radiation modification
Use the future to build the present
Terrestrial solar radiation modification
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1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology
1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology

Sub-Field:

3.6.3Terrestrial solar radiation modification

    Changing the colour of parts of the Earth's surface can affect local heating. This is because dark surfaces absorb more of the sun's heat, while light colour surfaces reflect more back into space. As a result, making the surface of the planet lighter --- increasing its "albedo" --- can have cooling effects.23

    One prominent method is to paint roofs white or other pale colours. This can have direct benefits to the local populations, including mitigating the worst effects of heatwaves. Furthermore, the cost is relatively low.24

    In areas not covered by buildings and roads, plants with light-coloured leaves can also change the local albedo. This is cited as a potential downside of planting additional trees on grassland areas: trees are typically darker than grass, so they lower the albedo and may thus contribute some warming. There is also ongoing research into engineering paler crop plants, a task in which synthetic biology may play a role.25

    At the more extreme end of the scale, there are proposals to artificially re-grow Arctic sea ice, perhaps by spraying tiny particles of silicon dioxide to encourage ice formation, or by pumping huge volumes of cold water up from the deep sea. In theory, schemes like these could restore a large area of reflective ice surface. However, the feasibility and costs are uncertain, and there may be unforeseen negative environmental consequences.26

    Future Horizons:

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    5-yearhorizon

    Urgency spurs international research

    Following the COP28 Global Stock Take, the UN Environment Assembly and the Arctic Council agree that refreezing the Arctic is an urgent priority to avoid a major global tipping point. This spurs major international research efforts to find effective solutions. Small effects of albedo brightening encourage local governments to experiment further.

    10-yearhorizon

    Building codes embrace albedo brightening

    Albedo brightening is written into legal requirements for new buildings.

    25-yearhorizon

    Crops assist albedo brightening

    Crops engineered for higher albedo become widely available to farmers.

    Terrestrial solar radiation modification - Anticipation Scores

    How the experts see this field in terms of the expected time to maturity, transformational effect across science and industries, current state of awareness among stakeholders and its possible impact on people, society and the planet. See methodology for more information.