3.6.4. Space-based solar radiation modification
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3.6.4. Space-based solar radiation modification
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Space-based solar radiation modification
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1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology
1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology

Sub-Field:

3.6.4Space-based solar radiation modification

    There are a number of proposals for space-based technologies that could mitigate climate warming. In all cases, the technologies would prevent some of the Sun's radiation from reaching the planet, offsetting the additional heat trapped by greenhouse gases.

    The simplest notion is a large occulting disc or “parasol”. This would be placed at a carefully chosen position between the Earth and the Sun, in order to produce a permanent partial solar eclipse. The ideal location would be Lagrange Point 1, where the gravitational pulls of the Sun and Earth are balanced. The disc would need to be fitted with steerable rocket thrusters to maintain its position: it could also be manoeuvred into different orientations, giving a measure of control.27

    Researchers have also considered a number of alternative reflectors for reducing the radiation incident on Earth.28 These include Fresnel lenses, diffraction gratings and mirrors.29 In theory, all of them could produce sufficient cooling to offset the warming effect of our greenhouse gas emissions.30 The key considerations are the robustness of the design to meteoroids and other threats, and the mass of the structure — all of which must be carried into space by rocket, or else manufactured in space, adding to the cost.

    All these technologies face considerable technical and economic barriers.31 For example, an occulting disc at Lagrange Point 1 would need to have a surface area of millions of square kilometres: no structure remotely close to such a scale has ever been constructed in space. Furthermore, such projects arguably also create a dangerous single point of failure in our climate mitigation strategies: in contrast to Earth-based forms of SRM, the scale of investment and hardware deployment required for a space-based reflector would mean putting all our eggs in one basket, with catastrophic risks if the project failed.

    Future Horizons:

    ×××

    5-yearhorizon

    Space-based SRM remains a conversation topic

    Renewed interest in spaceflight and space colonisation ensures that conversations about space-based SRM continue.

    10-yearhorizon

    Falling costs spur interest

    Speculative planning by interested parties shows that once-prohibitive costs have been reduced through advances in spaceflight technology. Consortia of wealthy individuals begin to talk openly about temporarily alleviating climate issues through space-based means.

    25-yearhorizon

    Feasibility studies begin

    Governments commission preliminary feasibility studies for space-based SRM. Small-scale, low-orbit tests of solar reflector technology begin.

    Space-based solar radiation modification - Anticipation Scores

    How the experts see this field in terms of the expected time to maturity, transformational effect across science and industries, current state of awareness among stakeholders and its possible impact on people, society and the planet. See methodology for more information.