Because quantum computing is most useful at scale, it is important that the qubits are available in large numbers, connected to each other in low-noise (and thus low-error) configurations.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Access to quantum processors improves

More hardware originators offer access to end users, creating co-design opportunities and further accelerating innovation. Europe’s integration of quantum computing into high-performance classical-computing centres leads to new application ideas. The drive to improve quantum computing hardware creates secondary benefits by further stimulating innovation and demand in classical control electronics, laser systems and other technologies.

10-yearhorizon

Quantum advantage is widely accepted

Qubit counts on superconducting processors reach many hundreds of thousands, allowing the useful implementation of quantum algorithms able to solve complex problems and generate business value. The performance of quantum computing hardware drives the development of better high-performance classical computing.

25-yearhorizon

The million logical qubit era arrives

Processors that incorporate millions of logical qubits are routinely available, accessible via cloud services. Hardware development focuses on a relatively small number of the most successful technologies, with “losers” dropping out of the running.

A range of hardware approaches exist: superconducting qubits; neutral atoms; trapped ions; photonics implementations; spins-in-silicon; diamond nitrogen-vacancy centres and several more. There is also a range of architectures: some are based on digital logic gates, others are analogue implementations. All of them have advantages and disadvantages, depending on the envisaged application. As yet, there is no consensus on which approach, or approaches, will ultimately achieve quantum computing that goes beyond what is classically possible. The era of useful quantum computing will probably see a wide-ranging set of options used, with each one suited to different kinds of tasks, running algorithms designed to take advantage of the hardware’s specific features and capabilities.

There is currently no metric by which the various hardware approaches can be compared, but many of them are now sufficiently advanced to allow on-site or remote access (via the cloud) to interested parties. This has created a positive feedback regime, where users are contributing to design and performance improvements. However, the machines and design principles that currently exist are likely to be only a bridge to better future approaches, so there are good scientific and economic reasons for holding off on scaling up many of the current systems.

Quantum Hardware development - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.