1.1.3. Intelligent devices
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1.1.3. Intelligent devices
Use the future to build the present
Intelligent devices
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1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology
1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology

Sub-Field:

1.1.3 Intelligent devices

    Massive AI models running on servers are incredibly powerful, but to make use of them, data has to be streamed back and forth via the cloud. This is not ideal for privacy sensitive-applications such as healthcare and smart homes, or safety critical ones such as autonomous vehicles or robotics, where network lags could lead to accidents. The sheer volume of data produced by the growing Internet of Things also presents a problem.

    Hence, running models embedded on “intelligent devices” will be imperative for many of the most promising AI applications. However, smaller machines with limited power supplies are unable to support the computing and energy requirements of today’s leading models. This is spurring efforts to develop more efficient chips specialised for embedded applications, and optimisation techniques that can make models smaller, more energy efficient and faster without sacrificing performance.2122

    Training these intelligent devices will also require innovations. Federated learning is a promising approach that distributes training over many smaller devices without pooling data centrally, reducing bandwidth requirements and improving privacy.23 Reinforcement learning, in which AI learns to perform a task by repeatedly performing actions and seeing if they maximise a carefully chosen reward, is seen as a promising way to train robots and other automated machines. Doing this is in the real world is slow and costly, though, and collecting enough real-world training data is a significant challenge A new paradigm that involves training models in simulations and then porting them over to devices may present a powerful alternative.24

    Future Horizons:

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    5-yearhorizon

    Simple AI models become ubiquitous

    The number of devices capable of running simple AI models increases dramatically. This allows companies to generate far more useful insights from sensors and machinery throughout the supply chain, leading to significant efficiency gains. On-device processing also becomes standard for privacy-sensitive consumer applications like fitness tracking, health monitoring and smart homes.

    10-yearhorizon

    Autonomous robot deployment expands

    Breakthroughs in simulation technology make it possible to train autonomous vehicles and robots far faster and cheaper than before, massively expanding their deployment. While state-of-the-art models remain large and centralised, the AI most people interact with on a daily basis becomes highly distributed. Both the training and running of these models is increasingly done on devices at the edge of the network.

    25-yearhorizon

    Humanity experiences ambient intelligence in the environment

    Improvements in both hardware and software mean it is now trivial to add AI to almost any device. Humanity enters the era of “ambient intelligence” in which every element of the man-made environment responds intelligently to us in an intuitive and almost undetectable way. This dramatically simplifies people’s everyday lives, but raises deep questions about distinctions between human and machine agency.

    Intelligent devices - Anticipation Scores

    How the experts see this field in terms of the expected time to maturity, transformational effect across science and industries, current state of awareness among stakeholders and its possible impact on people, society and the planet. See methodology for more information.

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