A better understanding of collective cognition — how groups of humans "think" as a unit — will be critical for moving the field forward. Just as in individuals, a group’s cognitive processes can be subdivided into various components such as memory, attention and reasoning. But these operate in very different ways at a group level, necessitating novel theories to explain them.²⁷ ²⁸

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Coherent theory of CI emerges

Academic research delineates the various national, cultural and social influences on collective cognition, paving the way for a coherent theory of human CI. Attempts to harness CI for practical applications are increasingly informed by CI theory. A more integrated evolutionary theory of collective intelligence, combining archaeology, primatology, psychology and computer science, among other disciplines, begins to emerge.

10-yearhorizon

Metrics quantify CI

Data-gathering from online collective activities allows researchers to develop metrics for different aspects of CI, producing better models of collective cognition and acting as input for CI-enhancing tools. Large-scale collection of stories from different communities is used to train LLMs, which can then help analyse the narratives driving the collective cognition of society at large.

25-yearhorizon

CI theory incorporates machines

Comprehensive models of collective cognition make it possible to boost the effectiveness of both small and large groups of humans. CI theory is broadened to incorporate increasingly intelligent machines in theories of collective cognition.

Research has shown that collective cognition is not uniform and is shaped by the social structures in which the groups operate.²⁹ Groups in the real world also have to navigate numerous, disparate and ever-changing challenges, which means they are in a constant process of adaption.³⁰ One particularly under-studied aspect of collective cognition is the role of narrative. Stories are central to the way groups coalesce around particular goals or shared visions of reality, which is an essential precursor to any form of collective reasoning.³¹

Increasing use of technology to enhance CI also necessitates the development of new metrics of collective cognition that can be used by digital platforms or AI to improve group collaboration. While there has been progress on defining and even measuring CI itself,³² decisions about what characterises "intelligent" group behaviour often remain subjective. Taking a multidisciplinary approach that pulls insights from biology, computer science and the social sciences will be crucial for developing a holistic view of CI,³³ and establishing what we mean by “intelligence” may be a precursor to being able to explain and improve CI.³⁴ ³⁵

Collective cognition - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.