1.5.4. Human-computer interaction
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1.5.4. Human-computer interaction
Use the future to build the present
Human-computer interaction
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1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology
1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology

Sub-Field:

1.5.4Human-computer interaction

    Using technology to effectively enhance CI will require breakthroughs in the theory and practice of human-computer interaction. Computer systems designed to facilitate human decision-making have a long history, but many have foundered due to failure to understand how humans use and perceive such technology. If we want to avoid the mistakes of the past, it will be crucial to find ways to link fundamental theories of human behaviour to the design of interactive systems.23

    The use of AI to facilitate CI presents specific challenges. CI methods can be used to enable more sophisticated learning, for example. By moving beyond the mere analysis of new data to the generation of new categories for that data, we can create a more effective pathway for both understanding and solving problems. Currently, AI does not do these "learning loops" well.

    Finding ways for human-computer partnerships to share agency effectively and to delegate control in an optimal manner will be important.24 Human decision-making is highly context-dependent and that context is not static, so CI technology must be able to adapt on-the-fly to the ever-shifting circumstances in which human groups are operating. It will be crucial for humans to understand what CI technology is doing, and why.

    This will require significant breakthroughs. Even such basic tasks as getting machines to understand who is speaking, or what they are saying, are proving difficult: imbuing machines with social intelligence remains a distant goal. Human-AI collaborative teams will also require machines that contain some kind of theory of mind --- the ability to model the mental states of others.25 As technology increasingly mediates group interactions it will also be necessary to find ways to measure how machines are changing human behaviour, to ensure they are enhancing human capabilities rather than causing them to atrophy.

    Future Horizons:

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    5-yearhorizon

    Improved interaction boosts effectiveness

    Renewed focus on improving how humans interact with CI tools significantly improves their effectiveness. The increasing use of technology to boost human collaboration prompts efforts to begin monitoring its impact on human behaviour and relations.

    10-yearhorizon

    AI breakthroughs bring more effective collaboration

    Breakthroughs in key AI capabilities like context-awareness and continual learning make it possible for CI tools to adapt to users and more effectively guide human collaboration. Evidence that some efforts to harness CI are actually causing humans skills to atrophy prompts a refocusing of efforts on tools that enhance human capabilities rather than replacing them.

    25-yearhorizon

    Artificial agents join collaborative teams

    Advances in AI make it possible to imbue AI with a theory of mind, allowing artificial agents to become useful members in AI-human teams. Organisations such as IPCC and UN use human-AI teams to aid cross-cultural negotiations.

    Human-computer interaction - Anticipation Scores

    How the experts see this field in terms of the expected time to maturity, transformational effect across science and industries, current state of awareness among stakeholders and its possible impact on people, society and the planet. See methodology for more information.

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