Connecting the virtual and the physical worlds will require a new global computing infrastructure. Responsive 3D content tied to spatial information requires far more data and processing than the text, images and videos that make up today’s internet. AR hardware will not be capable of providing this alone and so a massive expansion in cloud services will be necessary to render high-fidelity graphics at scale and support the required AI models²³. Faster wireless technology, including 5G, and edge stations that can bring processing closer to the user, will be crucial for ensuring AR content is delivered with low latency²⁴.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Early commercial AR applications emerge

A global roll-out of 5G technology provides the backbone for early commercial applications of AR. Work commences on creating new standards for AR content that will enable interoperability across different platforms and services.

10-yearhorizon

High-fidelity AR experiences transmitted wirelessly

5G is established and used as low-latency access for off-device computation and streamed applications. The first ideas for using the speed and data capacity of 6G technology begin to emerge, and engineers plan for delivery of high-fidelity AR experiences to headsets via wireless, significantly boosting realism and immersion. Companies dramatically expand their cloud infrastructure to support the huge amounts of data required to support millions of AR users. Moderating AR content becomes a major concern for AR platforms.

25-yearhorizon

Era of the open metaverse begins

Breakthroughs in the processing power of AR devices means content no longer has to be served from the cloud, reducing infrastructure requirements again. Platforms have settled on common standards that allow seamless interoperability, creating an open metaverse where users can easily transition between different AR services and experiences.

There are likely to be multiple competing platforms providing access to AR, analogous to different operating systems for PCs and smartphones. For the full potential of AR to be realised these platforms will need to be interoperable, which will require the development of common standards for things like 3D graphics, spatial data and the physics governing virtual content²⁵. Whether these ecosystems will be open or closed remains unclear, but could have significant implications for the development of the technology²⁶.

Platforms will also have to address tricky questions around what elements of AR should be shared experiences and what should be controlled by users. The diversity of content that AR enables will also require innovations in moderation algorithms and technologies²⁷.

AR platforms - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.