AR will lead to a blurring of the boundaries between the physical and digital worlds, which could have profound impacts on human psychology and social relations. The reality-distorting effects of social media are a harbinger of what could come, and phenomena like disinformation, echo chambers²⁸ and body dysmorphia caused by image filters²⁹ could all be turbocharged by AR technology. The ability to tweak users' perceptions of the world around them could also be used to manipulate them in novel ways³⁰. The personalisation of AR experiences could ultimately lead to a breakdown in the shared reality that is essential for the smooth functioning of societies. Extensive psychology, neuroscience and social science research will be required to understand how AR will impact humanity and pre-empt potential pitfalls. VR simulations of future AR scenarios could provide crucial insights.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Research maps out social implications of AR

Simple consumer AR devices that implement basic features like image filters prompt a major push to study their impact on human behaviour. More advanced commercial glasses become a crucial tool in studying perception and cognition. Immersive simulations of AR in VR help researchers to begin to map out the social implications of the technology.

10-yearhorizon

Government regulation begins

As AR becomes a consumer technology, concerns around its potential impact on society become more salient, forcing governments to start regulating the industry. AR glasses become a powerful medical tool that provide early warning of disease and help optimise healthy behaviours.

25-yearhorizon

Pervasive AR threatens shared reality

AR is so pervasive that it becomes necessary to find ways to preserve a shared experience of reality in order to avoid compromising societal cohesion. The ability to create virtual experiences that are indistinguishable from reality makes it increasingly easy to manipulate people for commercial or political purposes, forcing governments to impose strict controls on AR platforms.

At the same time, AR will provide a powerful new tool to understand human perception and cognition³¹. The ability to simultaneously control sensory stimuli and record physiological responses such as eye movement and skin conductance in real-world environments could provide unprecedented insights for physicians, psychologists and neuroscientists³². Such advances could, for example, enable early disease diagnoses, accelerate rehabilitation of cognitive and neurological disorders, and even help optimise everyday behaviours such as eating or sleep patterns³³.

Human factors of AR - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.