1.4.2. Augmented experiences
Download PDF
1.4.2. Augmented experiences
Use the future to build the present
Augmented experiences
Comment
Stakeholder Type
1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology
1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology

Sub-Field:

1.4.2Augmented experiences

    Early incarnations of AR will be concerned with two fundamental activities: learning about the world and interacting with other people. This will include tasks like overlaying instructions or translations on the real world, or participating in 3D video calls.17 Near real-time interaction is possible depending on the amount of processing required, and AR has moved from game-playing and applications requiring lower accuracy to precise engineering and medical fields.

    Further down the line, AR glasses will be able to integrate complex virtual objects into real world scenes. However, doing so in an intuitive and seamless way will require significant breakthroughs in 3D scene reconstruction18 and low latency graphics to improve realism.

    A crucial aspect will be innovations in user experience19 — how to present virtual content to people in ways that are both intuitive and powerful. This will require some standardisation in interfaces so that people can seamlessly switch between AR apps. Always-on AR will require careful design to ensure that users aren't overwhelmed with information or notifications, and that it enhances their cognition without being distracting, obtrusive or addictive.

    To make this a reality AR will have to become adaptive, using AI to analyse data from physiological sensors and cameras to understand both the user and their environment.20 This will require breakthroughs in areas like continual learning — so that AI can update models of the user on-the-fly — and activity recognition, so that AR devices can understand the user's context and anticipate their needs. Core AI functionality like image recognition or translation will be served by large, shared models accessed over the cloud, but AI responsible for learning about the user's preferences will need to run on AR devices in a decentralised fashion.

    Future Horizons:

    ×××

    5-yearhorizon

    AR overlays for simple information

    AR is primarily used as a display replacement, overlaying simple information like navigation instructions, translations or diagnostics, or allowing people to make video calls. User interfaces become standardised, making it easier to switch between AR apps. Breakthroughs in continual learning AI begin to make it possible for AR software to adapt to users, and to enable collaboration and shared experiences.

    10-yearhorizon

    Consumer-grade glasses and adaptive user interfaces

    AI-powered adaptive user interfaces that can understand the environment and personalise themselves to a user's preferences will have been perfected in time for the release of consumer-grade AR glasses. The technology will start to provide everyday users with always-on AI support in their everyday lives. The boundary between AR and VR becomes blurred: breakthroughs in graphics enable complex virtual content, such as realistic shading and dimming by virtual objects on the real-world view, and vice-versa.

    25-yearhorizon

    Individually-tailored reality becomes the norm

    Virtual content becomes indistinguishable from reality thanks to dramatic improvements in graphics and associated technology. Each AR user now has a personalised AI assistant that continually tailors their experience of reality to optimise all aspects of their life.

    Augmented experiences - Anticipation Scores

    How the experts see this field in terms of the expected time to maturity, transformational effect across science and industries, current state of awareness among stakeholders and its possible impact on people, society and the planet. See methodology for more information.

    GESDA Best Reads and Key Resources