The world of diplomacy is rich in data. The United Nations and other international forums have detailed records of debates, speeches and negotiations going back decades. Then there are databases recording demographics, trade, finance, spending and common declarations made by international organisations. Beyond these forums, important sources include records of human rights violations and other data used by international justice organisations.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Higher-education establishments broaden skill sets for scientists and diplomats

Efforts to build capacity for computational diplomacy bear fruit in the form of an increased range of courses and training programmes across relevant disciplines. Predictive modelling improves at the sub-national level with AI systems providing natural-language translations of model outputs.

10-yearhorizon

Text-mining shows its worth on the global stage

In helping to finalise the language in several major agreements and in helping to prevent “forum shopping” by several state actors, text-mining shows its potential and is set to become a standard tool in international negotiations. Predictive modelling becomes more fine-grained, with the potential for daily updates and a greater ability to predict the effect of policy changes.

25-yearhorizon

Computational diplomacy reshapes international relations as a science

The successes with text mining and other data-driven applications allow experts to create a robust theory of diplomacy that makes testable predictions and creates useful frameworks for diplomatic interactions. Predictive forecasts become a ubiquitous tool for policy-makers, who will know in advance the effect of their actions and how they may inflame or cool tensions.

The cost of processing this data means it has not been well used to inform the process of diplomacy, to amplify cooperation and to improve outcomes. Nevertheless, organisations like the UN, the World Bank and other policy-makers are working hard to integrate quantitative methods into their organisations, which will accelerate the practice of computational diplomacy and its use of big data, machine learning and computational thinking.

There is much low-hanging fruit here. The networks of actors on the international stage and their institutional relationships are already beginning to be mapped,¹,²,³ giving a deeper understanding of the connections that can influence negotiations. Also being mined for insight are resolutions adopted by various international organisations. Relevant examples include the UN General Assembly and Security Council resolutions histories,⁴ sponsorship data⁵ and debate themes, as well as the resolutions adopted by the World Health Organization.⁶

Much more can be done. Combining a data-driven approach with computational modelling can facilitate a more fundamental understanding of how multilateral governance systems work and how they can be improved, for example.⁷ The growing use of AI is likely to have a significant impact here,⁸ but developing the multidisciplinary expertise that can manage and exploit diplomatic processes is a significant challenge.

Computational diplomacy - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.