Society
Comment
Stakeholder Type

Society

5.3.3

Sub-Field

Society

Mathematics is central to much of the work carried out in the social sciences. Calculus underpins our understanding of economic systems; algebra and game theory define the forces at work when we model social interactions such as elections and responses to policy changes such as inter-state relations and healthcare provision; a deep grasp of statistics is vital to the task of anticipating future societal needs and ensuring that resource management is achieved effectively and efficiently. However, individual human behaviour resists mathematical modelling11 because of its complicated nature, including susceptibility to priming and framing effects that exert considerable influence on short timescales.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Data analysis supports new urban initiatives

Major cities begin to experiment with the application of AI-powered data analysis and network theory to design new urban initiatives. Mathematicians assist in efforts to improve voting systems to create better-functioning democracies.

10-yearhorizon

Models predict citizen response to policy

Experimental economics helps predict how citizens will respond, and how their welfare will be affected, when government policy changes.

25-yearhorizon

Decision-making forecasts improve

AI and network theory enable reasonably accurate forecasting of human decision-making, based on patterns of previous behaviour.

Mathematical tools may nonetheless be able to extract rules and descriptions for human behaviour in the aggregate.12 There are, for instance, mathematical relationships between quality of societal infrastructure, population size, crime statistics and income distributions. In addition, understanding the kinds of network structures that exist in online and other communities, or organisational structures in particular disciplines, can help describe and model human behaviour and characteristics. Such phenomenological modelling can reveal the core dynamics that drive large-scale transformations in complex systems where first-principles models are impossible. These insights, if gained with sufficient mathematical rigour, can be applied to help shape human behaviour, not just to describe it. Data analysis carried out on societal systems facilitates the exposure of systemic risks13 or hidden biases, such as might be found in legal, governmental or corporate decision-making. Mathematically-derived insights can also provide ways to go beyond simple market dynamics, facilitating new, urgently required hybrid markets such as those needed for sustainable development and healthcare.14 Understanding of social-network structures can help with robust communication in an information-saturated world, enabling the exchange of ideas beyond the originator’s bubble or to avoid echo-chamber effects.15

One impediment to progress is not lack of mathematical tools but a lack of data on human behaviour and decision-making. Historical records are too sparse to create precise economic models, and there is a dearth of controlled experiments generating useful, cleanly interpretable data. Mathematically driven data science can be expected to help fill the gap, maybe incorporating new advances in the understanding of human behaviour such as that provided by neuroscience.16

Society - Anticipation Scores