Machines
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Stakeholder Type

Machines

5.3.2

Sub-Field

Machines

Recent progress in the development of AI and machine learning (ML) has led to numerous scientific, medical and even societal innovations that are set to improve the human experience. However, a range of significant challenges remain.5 Mathematicians are still seeking a clear theoretical understanding of exactly how and why AI and ML work,6 for example, with some models showing a mysterious ability to solve mathematical problems through guesswork in a manner that has yet to be understood. For this and other reasons, it is likely that AI will be most useful in its performance on tasks that are extremely challenging for human intelligence, and AI and human approaches to mathematics could ultimately be complementary rather than competitive.7

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Benchmarks help improve AI performance in mathematics

A rolling set of benchmarks for measuring AI progress in solving partial differential equations is established. AI assists formal verification routines to correct errors in proofs. Improved access to data assists ML modelling of feedback between ocean, human and climate systems. AI integrates symbolic and physical models for problem-solving.

10-yearhorizon

AI assists with proofs

AI fed small lemmas is able to formally prove modular parts of large formal proofs. Projects that data-dump iterations of flawed proofs enable AI to learn the process of human theorem-proving. Success here births a database of mathematical activity that complements mathematical achievement and provides AI with training data for achieving mathematical progress in the same style as human mathematicians. AI assists a number of projects centred on climate change, such as quantifying the value of ecosystem services (carbon sequestration, for example), intergenerational discounting, dynamic ocean modelling that manages climate-related displacement of biomass and integrating bioeconomic models into mainstream economic thought. AI-driven robotics interacts with the physical world and learns to mathematically encode physics through experience.

25-yearhorizon

AI ubiquitous in mathematics research

AI is integrated into the workflow of most mathematicians’ research as a kind of digital assistant for accomplishing routine tasks. Mathematical innovation allows AI-driven robotics systems to operate safely and intelligently in human environments.

A complication comes from the tendency for AIs doing mathematics to “hallucinate” mathematical truths in ways that make their output unsuitable for use in formal proof. As yet, the field has yet to agree on what constitutes a good set of benchmarks for AI performance in a number of mathematical fields,8,9 making it extremely difficult to measure progress. Nonetheless, it is expected that theoretical advances in AI and ML will make their mathematics increasingly reliable and useful for pressing issues such as modelling the interactions of ocean, human and climate systems, as well as in basic science.10

Generative AI and statistical ML are being used by applied mathematicians and assisting with the design of physical systems. However, building AI that understands the real world means building “embodied” AI that works via the maths-based rules behind real-world physical processes, integrating symbolic and physical models. This will also produce more robust, efficient and explainable intelligence. Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved without new mathematical insights and architectures that unify and streamline the variety of paths currently being taken.

Machines - Anticipation Scores