One of the significant opportunities for those in the science-diplomacy sphere is the role they can play in areas of conflict and inter-group tensions. Though predominantly positive, the rising rivalries between certain powerful nations are leading to science diplomacy being used as a weapon as well as a peacebuilding tool. Nuclear diplomacy is also returning to the spotlight as these tensions escalate.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Science diplomacy becomes a hard tool in international relations

International scientific cooperation is increasingly weaponised as a means of participating in conflict. The majority of actors in the science diplomacy sphere nonetheless preserve inclusive and cooperative uses of science diplomacy as the most frequently deployed acts. Science diplomacy helps create projects and plans that contribute to peacekeeping efforts, inter-group negotiations and maintenance of stability.

10-yearhorizon

Science facilities opened up to scientists displaced by conflict

Researchers working in former conflict zones (particularly in developing economies) are given access to Big Science facilities, virtually and in person, as a result of science diplomacy work to re-establish countries’ peacetime activities. With increased training, individual scientists become more aware of their potential role in science diplomacy.

25-yearhorizon

Science diplomacy improves international relations

The dual-use aspect of science diplomacy is recognised, and efforts are made to prioritise its use in avoiding conflict and establishing peaceful, collaborative and equitable futures. Nonetheless, scientists continue to feel pressure to align with their national government’s policies and ideologies.

Science is certainly affected by conflict. The war in Ukraine, for example, has hindered some collaborations between scientists of different nations: because of Russia’s geographical position, these stymied collaborations are having direct effects on Arctic science and are likely to affect protections against exploitation of Arctic resources.⁹

Science has recently become part of broader policies of sanctions between nation-states, as technology has become an interestingly important element of successful economies. More positively, it may be possible for scientists — working with science-diplomacy resources — to become drivers of positive change, shaping global research to give more equitable benefit from the outcomes of science.

Science diplomacy in an era of conflict - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.