Science diplomacy has long played a part in maintaining good relations between economic world powers.⁶ In recent years, CERN has extended this to embrace partnerships with the world’s emerging economies, such as Chile, India and Pakistan.⁷ This has added new dimensions to diplomacy between the various nations involved.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Emerging economies invest in science diplomacy training

Universities and institutes work with emerging-economy nations to train numerous science diplomacy practitioners in these countries, often uniting on the basis of a shared language. Innovative immersive pairing schemes between politicians, engineers and scientists foster the mutual transfer of skill sets in a broad range of countries, establish science diplomacy as a regional endeavour and give a greater role to Indigenous peoples.

10-yearhorizon

Trained science diplomats are spread through relevant organisations

Graduates from science diplomacy-focused training courses in emerging economies become increasingly influential actors in state and non-state organisations, and amongst leaders in science. The reciprocal benefits of research between disciplines, nations and peoples becomes an increasingly important part of science, and funding becomes dependent on establishing such mutual gains.

25-yearhorizon

Emerging economies gain increasing influence over Big Science

Large-scale science projects that involve cooperation between countries of different economic status are established thanks to complex, multi-layered negotiations between many state and non-state actors. Much of the progress is thanks to training initiatives where key groups of experts from a diverse range of nations are encouraged to develop skills spanning diplomacy and science.

There are, however, significant collaborations that involve exclusively emerging economies. Intergovernmental science organisations such as the African Lightsource, the Synchrotron-Light for Experimental Science and Applications in the Middle East (SESAME) — a joint undertaking of Israel, the Palestinian Territories, Egypt, Jordan, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and Cyprus — and the Latin American and Caribbean Space Agency are all good examples of nations with emerging economies engaging in multilateral science diplomacy on their own terms.

The value of such endeavours in establishing credentials for global engagement is clear from South Africa’s success with the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), a radio-telescope project that is showcasing the nation’s science and engineering talent, creating programmes to further develop its human capital and burnishing its reputation as a rising power on the world economic and intellectual stage. Although there are hurdles to overcome, there are clear reasons to encourage and pursue more such inclusive collaborations between countries of differing economic means.⁸ At the same time, more and more emerging economies are taking an interest in science diplomacy as a means of moving towards greater scientific and technological development

Science diplomacy and emerging economies - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.