Software has long been the biggest bottleneck to robotics advances, but for the technology to reach its full potential, breakthroughs in hardware are also crucial.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Robots become master manipulators

More advanced manipulators and advances in tactile sensing allow robots to take on tasks requiring greater dexterity, becoming commonplace in industries like retail, logistics, recycling and manufacturing. Economies of scale see the cost of robotic hardware fall significantly, further spurring adoption.

10-yearhorizon

Humanoid robots take over

Breakthroughs in battery technology significantly increase run times of mobile robots. Humanoid robots become the dominant form factor due to the ease of integrating them into environments already adapted for humans. While still largely mechanical, robots feature an increasing number of soft components, particularly those deployed in safety-conscious areas like medicine and care work.

25-yearhorizon

Robot bodies evolve

Advances in hardware capabilities make it possible to realise the exotic designs dreamed up by evolutionary robotics algorithms, leading to a rapid diversification in robot body shapes. Robots look increasingly “organic” as they are now primarily composed of soft, active materials and powered by artificial muscles.

Novel manipulator designs are allowing robots to carry out more delicate tasks than were previously possible.²¹ But they are still a long way from replicating the dexterity of the human hand. In particular, tactile sensing is still unable to provide the precise feedback crucial for handling soft and delicate objects or operating safely and socially alongside humans.²²,²³

The field of soft robotics could provide solutions, in the form of active materials that can sense and actuate simultaneously²⁴. Artificial muscle technology is a promising option,²⁵,²⁶,²⁷ and the ability to rapidly transition between soft and rigid states could make it safer to deploy around humans than conventional hardware.

There are more prosaic concerns, though. Both the computer hardware required to run AI and the mechatronics that enable robots to move are power-hungry, severely limiting run times for mobile robots. Better battery technology and more efficient chips will be crucial before robots can be more widely deployed. Robotic hardware is also expensive, though prices are falling.²⁸

More broadly, there is often a lack of imagination when it comes robotic body plans. Most research is focussed on robotic arms, quadrupeds or humanoid robots, but the technology doesn’t need to be constrained to form factors already found in nature. Evolutionary robotics, which adapts robot designs to specific challenges,²⁹ and robots that can dynamically alter their configuration hold considerable promise.³⁰

Robotic hardware - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.