Science and technology breakthroughs can help to improve the ecosystems in which crops, livestock and agriculture exist. Research identifying the threats to pollinators, for instance, allows the development of interventions.¹⁹ Genetic engineering has been used to modify symbiotic micro-organisms living in honeybees, protecting them against Varroa mites²⁰ and the Nosema parasite.²¹ It may also be possible to engineer plants towards being more efficiently pollinated.²²

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Technology helps improve soil health

Analyses of soil microbiome identify key species and interactions, while cheaper and smaller sensors enable more systematic monitoring of soil health. Effective microbial and multiple genome-editing tools enable microbiome engineering. Blight-resistant potatoes are developed.

10-yearhorizon

Research gives deeper understanding of pests and pollinators

Further development of gene-drive technology allows the risks they bring to be mitigated. Understanding of pollinators and their role in ecosystems is sufficient to develop a global strategy for pollinator conservation. Stable synthetic microbial communities are developed.

25-yearhorizon

Small-scale interventions preserve productivity

The interactions between farms and their ecosystems are tracked through a widespread rollout of monitoring systems, allowing interventions that enhance agricultural productivity and prevent degradation of the natural environment. Gene-stacking and AI enable editing of organisms within the soil microbiome, significantly boosting its utility.

Research is increasing the specificity of pesticides, reducing unintended effects on non-target organisms, and thus mitigating harm to crucial parts of the food chain and natural pest controls. Alternatives to pesticides, such as RNA sprays, are in development.²³ There is also growing attention being paid to gene drives. These are heritable edits to the genes of a specific organism that will spread through a population when the edited organisms are released into the ecosystem. They can be used to render populations incapable of spreading disease or to control the reproduction of invasive species,²⁴ although further research is required to avoid unintended consequences.²⁵

Novel means of enhancing soils with nutrients, such as the addition of biochar (a charcoal-like substance made from anaerobic burning of organic material), are being explored.²⁶ Understanding the soil microbiome, including competition among microbes, is key.²⁷ Conserving or restoring the soil microbiome is also important, and has been shown to accelerate plant biomass production by more than 60 per cent, making it a priority task.²⁸ Knowledge gaps in the role of cropping systems in soil health remain,²⁹ ³⁰ but improving understanding of fundamental ecosystem properties, especially feedback mechanisms and complex interactions, should help close them.

Reformatting the ecosystem - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.