A combination of conventional breeding and newer technologies such as CRISPR genetic editing may significantly enhance the resilience of crops and livestock to changing conditions, and the nutrient availability they offer.⁵

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Genetic engineering of plant metabolism improves efficiency

Advances in fundamental understanding of photosynthesis processes enable genetic engineering of the system to improve efficiency. AI identifies optimal targets for genetic engineering of the plant microbiome.

10-yearhorizon

Engineering approaches become mainstream

Crops with enhanced photosynthesis efficiency are routinely engineered. First commercial RNA vaccines for crop diseases are created. Meat from genetically engineered livestock is widely available. First food proteins are derived from CO₂ by genome-edited micro-organisms.

25-yearhorizon

New foods come to market

Multiple new strains of cereals are domesticated by genetic engineering from wild species. Understanding of the plant microbiome allows symbiotic relationships to be engineered to maximise crop resilience and yield. Global lab-grown meat that replicates the sensory experience of animal meat achieves price parity.

Biofortification, where conventional plant breeding or modern biotechnology techniques bolster the amount of iron and other essential minerals and vitamins on offer, is an increasingly promising option.⁶ Although the factors influencing both the nutrient content of crops and the scale of their absorption by human bodies remain incompletely understood,⁷ many successes in biofortification have already been achieved through conventional breeding, and the potential of genetic engineering technologies (gene stacking, where two or more novel and useful genes are introduced into a single plant line, is one example) remains largely untapped.⁸

Genetic engineering can also boost crop yields, for example by re-engineering photosynthesis to boost energy capture.⁹ This can be coupled with improved crop resilience to help cope with droughts,¹⁰ pests and disease, which together account for 43 per cent of global crop loss.¹¹ ¹² Domestication of resilient wild species¹³ could increase agricultural resilience to changing environmental conditions.¹⁴ RNA sprays, which deliver RNA-based vaccines against diseases to crops, have considerable potential for improving resilience against pathogens.¹⁵

Engineering the plant bacterial microbiome can enhance crop production and resilience.¹⁶ That is especially true for the rhizosphere microbiome associated with plant roots, which can help crops resist disease.¹⁷ There is also similar potential to engineer livestock. Already, researchers have used genetic engineering to develop fast-growing AquAdvantage salmon (which havve been commercialised), pigs resistant to viral infections and dairy cattle resistant to mastitis.¹⁸

Engineering crops and livestock - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.