We are rapidly improving our understanding of the physics of the ocean, including the mapping of currents, temperatures and flows of chemicals. A major driver has been remote-sensing technologies for sea-surface monitoring, notably the Argo network of nearly 4000 robotic floats.² Researchers can now follow floating debris, such as marine plastic pollution, across oceans.³

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Ocean history becomes clearer

Improved palaeooceanographic proxies reveal how ocean behaviours have changed over millions of years. Research gains a better understanding of the physical mechanisms driving changes in the ocean, for example by analysing how freshwater inputs in the North Atlantic affect ocean circulation. The behaviour of the ocean is analysed under a more complex range of climate-change scenarios, including those with overshoots and with net-zero climate actions.

10-yearhorizon

Remote sensing improves

Cheaper and more efficient remote sensing enables detailed monitoring of ocean-surface currents, temperature and other factors throughout the world ocean. New Earth system models become available, enabling improved understanding of oceanographic processes such as CO₂ exchange and saturation, and the stability of circulating current patterns. Longer-term observations lead to improved understanding of the dominant forces driving change in the oceans.

25-yearhorizon

Data provides capacity to forecast major changes

Combining data, modelling and physical understanding enables forecasting of major oceanic changes such as shifting currents and upwelling. Higher-resolution models resolve existing discrepancies between models and observations. Observations until 2050 allow us to understand the ocean’s reaction to rapid climate change, for example determining whether or not the AMOC is losing stability and how much it can weaken.

For the first time we can track long-term changes. More heat is being transported into northerly waters, for instance.⁴ Currents are changing,⁵ with some slowing down or speeding up,⁶ and vast “gyres” shifting position.⁷ Ocean chemistry is also in flux: dangerous low-oxygen zones are growing.⁸ Researchers are now watching for evidence of tipping points,⁹ ¹⁰ such as a slowdown or collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC),¹¹ although timescales remain difficult to determine.

There is still a need for more data on the physical characteristics of the ocean, especially in the deep sea, which is somewhat constrained by gaps in our ability to gather data, whether using survey vessels, moored buoys, Argo floats or instruments tied to animals. If this situation can be improved by acquisition of data from commercial and military vessels, it may be possible (though this is still a subject of debate) to create a “digital twin” of the global ocean that is detailed enough to be useful in oceanographic prediction and intervention modelling. [12](

Oceanography - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.