Despite rapid progress, many discoveries about ocean biodiversity remain to be made. Technologies like eDNA and metagenomics are revealing unprecedented diversity in the “ocean genome”,¹³ aided by sampling programmes like Tara Oceans.¹⁴ Bio-logging enables remote tracking of animal behaviour,¹⁵ while acoustic sensors are increasingly contributing to biodiversity assessments.¹⁶ ¹⁷ ¹⁸ Furthermore, machine learning can be used to make sense of vast datasets, for example characterising the functional traits of plankton.¹⁹ There remains a need for consistent identifiers across different kinds of biodiversity data so researchers can make links between databases.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Monitoring improves assessment

More comprehensive and wide-ranging assessments of ocean biodiversity are made possible by a combination of monitoring techniques. Improvements in remote tracking of animals enable mapping of long-distance migration routes and identification of key regions such as spawning grounds. eDNA can identify species in a biome. Imaging and acoustic monitoring can recognise large animals to species level. Automated image capture helps monitor species abundance. Research achieves more precise and accurate estimates of the number of species in the ocean.

10-yearhorizon

Biodiversity-tracking aids conservation efforts

Multi-year studies enable tracking of biodiversity trends and inform conservation efforts to establish efficient marine protected areas. International capacity-building and knowledge-sharing programmes enable broader use of eDNA tools for biodiversity monitoring. Improved wet-lab methods and high-pressure aquaria enable more controlled studies of marine organisms and biochemistry, including chemical signalling.

25-yearhorizon

Species-specific forecasting comes of age

Reliable forecasting allows predictions of which species will become invasive. Keystone species are identified, enabling protective measures. Reliable predictions of the chemicals an organism makes, and the roles it plays in its ecosystem, become possible, based primarily on its genome sequence. Humankind benefits from marine genetic resources through applications of biodiscovery of pharmaceutical compounds, and from Inspiration for novel materials and structural design.

The immense variety of microbial marine life²⁰ is only now coming to light²¹ — as are the complex ecosystems found in deep-sea water, as well as on and In the deep-sea bed.²² ²³ ²⁴ ²⁵ As the climate warms, some species are moving to new areas, creating an urgent need to understand which are becoming invasive.²⁶ More broadly, there is a need for more tracking of biodiversity, both to establish baselines and to follow trends as climate change²⁷ and other human impacts mount up.²⁸ Although warming is slower in the deep ocean, research suggests that its biodiversity is no less exposed than that of surface waters because of free-drifting (pelagic) larval stages in many deep-ocean organism life cycles and because of most deep-sea organisms' adaptation to cold and stable conditions. Indeed, projections indicate that, while mitigation could limit threats to surface biodiversity, deep-ocean biodiversity will face an unavoidable escalation in threat.[29](

Ocean biodiversity - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.