The science of hiding information by encrypting it to prevent unauthorised access faces a wide range of new challenges. Among the most significant is the advent of big data, stored in the cloud, that needs to be processed securely.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Secure cloud search revolutionises healthcare research

Homomorphic encryption techniques allow researchers to process data stored in the cloud without revealing its content. That leads to significant advances in fields such as genomics, where data privacy is a key concern. However, other security weaknesses that allow malicious users to access the data via well-known shortcomings threaten to undermine the potential. Basic-level data, such as DNS traffic, is routinely encrypted.

10-yearhorizon

Post-quantum encryption widely adopted

A relatively small number of quantum computers become capable of breaking public-key encryption. This forces the widespread adoption of post-quantum encryption, although some of the adopted encryption methods are likely to be broken. Simple, lightweight cryptography gains in popularity, but the environments that adopt a hybrid approach, using two or more encryption systems with very different characteristics, are the most secure against attack.

25-yearhorizon

Genome security improves

Homomorphic techniques allow the risk posed by a given nucleic acid sequence to be assessed without the whole sequence being read, protecting IP while facilitating trade and transfer of biological materials.

This has led to much work on homomorphic encryption,⁸ which allows encrypted information to be searched and processed while remaining encrypted. Applications include healthcare, banking, voting, genome encryption and beyond. Zero-knowledge proofs allow data verification without revealing anything about the data itself ⁹and have applications in healthcare, electronic identity systems, arms verification and so on. Another challenge comes from quantum computing systems, which are soon expected to become capable of breaking many public-key cryptographic systems that are in widespread use for communication, financial transactions and the like. The US National Institute of Standards and Technology is coordinating efforts to develop post-quantum cryptographic standards that will be immune to quantum attack.¹⁰ But much work needs to be done to make sure they are safe.

The internet of things is a network expected to connect over 40 billion devices by 2025,¹¹ but there are significant challenges in achieving this securely. These devices operate with lower power and with limited computational resources which limits the data processing they can do. Ongoing research for securing the internet of things focuses on blockchains, physically unclonable functions and post-quantum cryptography. Many of these techniques require improvements, such as error-detection routines and practical, user-friendly hardware interfaces. Device-independent cryptography, where users can test a device’s security for themselves, removing any reliance on manufacturer-issued assurances, remains an important goal.

Novel encryption technologies - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.