Among the most important drivers of cognitive enhancement in the coming decade will be advances in artificial intelligence that allow us to integrate external cognitive systems with our biology. Machine-learning algorithms, applied to data gathered from proliferating brain-surveillance techniques, will enable a better understanding of the principles of cognition and memory, and thus lead to develop better closed-loop devices. A feedback loop will thus emerge: advances in AI will be based on new insights in neuroscience; and better AI will improve human cognitive abilities.[25]

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Novel brain circuits are put to work

Artificial cognition informs new kinds of circuits and architectures; those brain circuits start emerging in the world and into devices. Companies adopt the third thumb for efficiency gain in the workforce.

10-yearhorizon

Brain implants enhance cognition through exogenous AI

Advances in human neuroscience and new machine-learning models and algorithms begin to unravel the fundamentals of cognition. Non-essential “cosmetic” augmentation of healthy brains becomes a growing trend. Pattern-detecting AIs working in conjunction with brain implants provide drug target prediction for combatting age-related declines in cognition and numerous neurological disorders.

25-yearhorizon

AI-informed gene editing changes biological memory and cognition

Thanks to insights from AI, researchers begin to understand how human brains build internal models of the world, and use these insights to enhance the performance and usefulness of these models. Medium-scale “digital twins” of human brains are developed for personalised medicine that can test neurological interventions in advance of real-world action.

It is likely that AI will eventually be integrated into human cognition, embedded in devices worn by consumers to augment their cognitive abilities. People may eventually invest in brain implants that seamlessly provide information and tune their brain activity as needed. The scope of future applications is wide and includes downregulating undesirable brain states and tuning the brain for optimal task-specific performance.

Technologically mediated changes to the body plan could also alter embodied cognition, exploiting the brain’s plasticity to find new ways to act on its environment. For example, experiments with a “third thumb” — a second, robotically-articulated thumb attached to one hand — have revealed that the brain quickly adapts to controlling the new digit and integrates it into its body plan, rewiring circuits to accommodate the addition.²⁶

Exogenous cognition - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.