2.1.4. Exogenous cognition
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2.1.4. Exogenous cognition
Use the future to build the present
Exogenous cognition
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1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology
1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology

Sub-Field:

2.1.4Exogenous cognition

    Among the most important drivers of cognitive enhancement in the coming decade will be advances in artificial intelligence that allow us to integrate external cognitive systems with our biology. Machine learning algorithms, applied to data gathered from proliferating brain surveillance techniques, will enable a better understanding of the principles of cognition and memory, and thus lead to develop better closed-loop devices. A feedback loop will thus emerge; advances in AI will be based on new insights in neuroscience; and better AI will improve human cognitive abilities.23

    It is likely that AI will eventually be integrated into human cognition, embedded in devices worn by consumers to augment their cognitive abilities. People may eventually invest in brain implants that seamlessly provide information and tune their brain activity as needed. The scope of future applications is wide and includes: downregulating undesirable brain states and tuning the brain for optimal task-specific performance.

    Technologically-mediated changes to the body plan could also alter embodied cognition, exploiting the brain’s plasticity to find new ways to act on its environment. For example, experiments with a “third thumb” – a second, robotically-articulated thumb attached to one hand – have revealed that the brain quickly adapts to controlling the new digit and integrates it into its body plan, rewiring circuits to accommodate the addition.24

    Future Horizons:

    ×××

    5-yearhorizon

    Novel brain circuits are put to work

    Artificial cognition informs new kinds of circuits and architectures; those brain circuits start emerging in the world and into devices. Companies adopt the third thumb for efficiency gain in the workforce.

    10-yearhorizon

    Brain implants enhance cognition through exogenous AI

    Penetrating electrical brain implants improve the human mind by connecting it to artificial intelligence. Non-essential “cosmetic” augmentation of healthy brains becomes a growing trend. Pattern-detecting AIs working in conjunction with brain implants provide drug target prediction for combatting age-related declines in cognition and numerous neurological disorders.

    25-yearhorizon

    AI-informed gene editing changes biological memory and cognition

    Thanks to insights from AI, and better models of cognition, gene editing is possible for specific genes associated with memory and other cognitive functions, reducing the decline associated with ageing. Researchers begin to understand how human brains build internal models of the world, and use these insights to enhance the performance and usefulness of these models. Medium-scale digital twins are developed for personalised medicine that can function as “dress rehearsal” for any neurological intervention. It becomes possible to engineer a brain simulation with more neurons than exist in the human brain.

    Exogenous cognition - Anticipation Scores

    How the experts see this field in terms of the expected time to maturity, transformational effect across science and industries, current state of awareness among stakeholders and its possible impact on people, society and the planet. See methodology for more information.

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