Future Horizons:
10-yearhorizon
Solvents for life are better understood
25-yearhorizon
Mars sample return planned
Even if no living organisms are found elsewhere, our investigations will shed light on the processes of prebiotic chemistry and primordial geochemistry.25 The planet Mars and the moons Europa, Enceladus and Titan all have or had environmental conditions similar to parts of Earth. Future missions such as ExoMars and Europa Clipper will provide information about processes that are likely to have taken place on the young Earth. A key opportunity for the coming decades will arise with sample-return missions that can bring high-quality samples back to Earth for detailed study.
Discovering life beyond the solar system remains a possibility, if a remote one. It is theoretically possible to find indirect evidence of life on an exoplanet, for example by detecting the presence of oxygen in the atmosphere through spectroscopic analysis. However, there are issues with interpreting such detections: on Earth, oxygen is only produced by living organisms, but it is difficult (if not impossible) to rule out abiotic processes being the cause on an exoplanet.26 This problem has already bedevilled researchers who detected methane on Mars and phosphine on Venus, and will be far worse when dealing with extremely distant worlds.27
Exobiology - Anticipation Scores
The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:
- The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
- The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
- The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.
This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.